I own Felix Hernandez and continue to receive trade inquiries about him. There is no denying that he has considerable injury risk. The pitch goes something like this: “His ERA is not likely to be below three since it was 4.50 last year, and anything below three is tough in the AL anyway; his Win-Loss record will be influenced negatively by the team he plays for, and he has a large injury risk.” Are they right? They certainly are about the injury risk, but what to make of his performance?

Here are his basic statistics to date:
W L S IP BB K ERA WHIP
3 2 0 31.3 14 37 2.87 1.34

Of course, the Generals focus on component stats and skills. To that end, BaseballHQ.com has Felix with a 35% H% (hits allowed per balls in play), despite which he still has posted this excellent performance. This H% is unlucky to the tune of about 5%, a significant number; the expected H% is approximately 30%. This “bad luck” leaves us with an xERA (expected ERA–see Shandler’s site for more details or see my post below) of 2.66. Current projections have him with 160 IP and a 3.37 ERA for the year. Felix will still have a remainder of 130 IP with an ERA in the mid 3’s, according to Shandler’s projections. Depending on your league this could be worth maybe $15 in a mixed league (depending on parameters) to $25 in a deep AL only league, such as the high-stakes league I am in. However, there is a good probability that his ERA not only will remain below three, but could go even lower, resulting in extra profit/points.

Felix’s xERA last year was 2.80, despite his actual ERA of 4.52. Last year his strand rate was an unlucky 69%, now it is a normal 76%. Secondly, his strikeout rate has increased, but his control has eroded a bit, but these roughly balance out: his K rate is 10.6 compared to 8.3 last year, his BB rate is 4.0 compared to 2.8 last year. So it is fair to say that last year he was unlucky, and that this year he has been closer to the norm, with the exception of that high H%. Right now we have an abnormally high hit rate that we expect to go down, and still have an xERA of 2.66.

Here are his results since his return:
14 IP
19 K
8 BB
22 H
7 ER

His hit rate has been adversely influenced by these three starts (22 hits in 14 IP), but other than that the injury doesn’t appear to have affected his basic skills since his return.

So what do we have?? We have a pitcher that has shown basic component skills that should result in an ERA in the high-twos but below three. Therefore, we should be surprised if he posts an ERA the rest of the way slightly below his xERA of 2.66, and certainly one should expect that his ERA should continue to approach his xERA. And if not? We will just have to live with 130 IP at a 3.30-3.50 ERA.