“Perceiving a victory that does not surpass what the masses could know is not the pinnacle of excellence…lifting the autumn hare cannot be considered great strength; seeing the sun and moon cannot be considered acute vision; hearing the sound of thunder cannot be considered having sensitive ears.”–Sun Tzu

The genesis of this post is my recent foray into listening to various and sundry baseball podcasts. Many of these give only the barest general advice and often focus on the obvious. For example, one discussed an analysis of whether owners should pick up Tim Lincecum. Another debated whether Phil Hughes will have fantasy value when he comes back. These analysts are hearing the thunder and lifting the hare.

Analysis here is of little value. Firstly, virtually all analysis will come to the same conclusion; Tim Lincecum is good. Is this a surprise, and is coming to this conclusion evidence of expertise?? Secondly, if everyone knows it, it has questionable value, unless you are the lucky owner who has him already or who had waiver priority. Such discussions are the fantasy equivalent to hearing the sound of thunder.

More examples abound but I will discuss one other; on one podcast the discussion was of various potential closers. This podcast recommended plays like “you should pick up Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano.” This advice comes a bit closer to being useful; since these players may not be known to have possible closer potential by some.

But even here the apparent easy battle is lost; this advice clearly has analytic value insofar as it can be debated and perhaps goes beyond the obvious, however it may have little practical value. Considering the type of league you are in is paramount; in deep AL or NL only leagues these players are almost certainly on rosters, in tough keeper leagues they were likely kept, in shallow eight and ten team leagues that only play 9 hitters, 5 starters and two closers they aren’t worth picking up. Now it should be obvious that an owner needs to consider the opportunity cost, the league context etc. But it apparently wasn’t obvious to the podcaster who never mentioned individual league rules or opportunity cost.

This is a simple example, and even mediocre fantasy owners probably know that they should at least consider the opportunity costs of picking up guys like this; and would consider that, for example, in Cleveland there are other strong competitors for the closer role but in Atlanta there aren’t as many. But maybe some don’t consider this, as the podcaster didn’t. Or, maybe he did but didn’t tell us.

The true Fantasy General however would automatically consider this advice in context. Pertinent issues include bullpen competition, the manager’s philosophy, statistical profiles of the pitcher and his competition, the quality of the closer he is backing up and most importantly the league rules that apply. Merely following supposed expert advice is precisely one item that the Generals abhor.

An owner I know was recently discussing the Florida pen, before Kevin Gregg emerged as the favorite, and insisted that Gregg would win the job over Taylor Tankersley. The rationale?? That in addition to the usual “easy battle” analysis, Tankersley was a lefty and the manager was loathe to use a lefty as a closer. The merits of the manager’s view are beside the point. This owner was going beyond the typical analysis; he was not just hearing the thunder or lifting a hare. Even better was that he reaped the benefit of his wisdom. This is what the Fantasy General must strive for.