It’s taken me a few days to get my s&it together and make my first post, and to start with a curse word certainly doesn’t bode well for my longevity. When Pat asked me to be a “contributor” to this blog, I wondered aloud, “what will I write about?” He said, “anything”. So, I said to him: in my NL only keeper league, someone offered me an $11 Kelly Johnson for a $29 Rafael Furcal and a $34 Billy Wagner.” Pat said - there’s a post. I felt like Jerry to Pat’s George; is this a blog about nothing?

After reading Pat’s posts thus far, I don’t feel like a General. Just call me Alice. Applying Pat’s criteria - (see below) I am not a “5 tool expert”.

1. My “knowledge” is primarily limited to the senior circuit, as my “serious” league is an NL-only keeper league. I am in two mixed shallow head to head leagues, which require more strategy than knowledge. (There’s another post, maybe Brad can handle this one).

2. I always attempt to devise a strategy for just about any endeavor. The key is controlling what you can control, and putting yourself in position so that you need to be “unlucky” to lose. When a given strategy fails, was it the strategy, or some factor out of your control? Here’s where the process is crucial: if the strategy is sound, the results will follow over time. Be patient. However, if the results reveal a factor that you did not consider in devising your strategy, you need to rethink that strategy.

For example, I was debating whether to go for Jimmy Rollins or Rafael Furcal in my NL only auction league. Rollins had an ankle sprain and would likely start the year on the DL. I felt that he would go far cheaper than Rollins, in part because of the DL stint. Shandler and Baseball Prospectus loved them both. Rollins came first - he went for $42. I got Furcal for $29. Mission accomplished? I was banking on Furcal and Alfonso Soriano (a holdover for $24 from last year) to provide almost all of my speed, and felt that 30-40 steals from each of them would put me in the top third of stolen bases (behind the owner who “wisely” kept Jose Reyes at $42. Predictably, Furcal started slow, and heated up in May, but has only 6 SBs thus far (and 0 HRs but that’s beside the point). And then I read one of the reasons why: this year, Furcal is hitting ahead of hitters who refuse to take pitches. This means fewer stolen base opportunities. In the end, my strategy my worked out, but the next time I look at a player for steals, I’m going to pay attention a little bit more to the overall lineup, not just mindlessly look at past year’s SB totals.

3. Independence. No problem here. More on this in a later post.

4. Flexibility - I’m sorely lacking in this department, as my NL auction strategy should have changed midstream but I couldn’t pull the trigger. As Pat’s prior post discussed (which is in a different league by the way), I was shocked at the money that was flying early in my auction, but I waited too long to spend my money and was left with $12 unspent. Inexcusable. This is the difference between a Todd Helton and a Pedro Feliz, and about 3 points or more in batting average.

5. Thought process. While I love to think, sometimes I over think in an effort to be the wiseguy and it shoots me in the foot. Like taking Mike Pelfrey over John Maine in a shallow keeper league because of better “upside”.

The very process of examining whether I “own” any of the “five tools of an expert” is a useful exercise, which should improve my future fantasy gaming skills. Hopefully, this blog will give you ideas how to improve your “process”, whether it apply to free agent pickups, trades, or next year’s draft/auction.