Looking at how Japanese plyers have fared in ROY voting, and predicting how DiceK will do this year. There is a perception among the cognoscenti that Japanese players have a more difficult time winning the Rookie of the Year (ROY) award, based upon the fact that many voters do not consider them to be true “rookies” because of their service time in Japan’s Professional Baseball League. Will this “perception” affect (Andrew DiceK) Matsuzaka’s ROY prospects for 2007. (Has Berman used this obvious permutation yet?)

First, let’s examine whether in recent history a deserving Japanese ROY candidate was denied:

In 2000 and 2001, the AL ROY awards went to Kaz Sasaki (then age 32) and Ichiro (then age 28). Sasaki, with 37 saves, won by default, beating out a weak field headed by Terence Long, Mark Quinn (the Eskimo?) and Bengie Molina, who had a sneaky-good rookie campaign with .739 ops in 473 at bats. Ichiro romped in the ROY voting (27-1 1st place votes over CC Sabathia) and even won the MVP (over Giambi’s 1.137 ops)!

Most people think immediately of 2003, when Hideki Matsui (then age 29) lost out to Angel Berroa (ss, KCR, then age 25). While Matsui has clearly blossomed into the better player (Berroa having been Designated for Assignment a few weeks ago and now playing in the minors), their stat lines were almost identical:

AB H HR BA OPS SB
Berroa 567 163 17 .287 .789 21
Matsui 623 179 16 .287 .788 2

Berroa, playing way down the defensive spectrum, hit 1 more homer and stole 19 more bases than Matsui in 56 fewer at bats. Their avg. and ops. were identical. And yet, Matsui nearly won, garnering 80 points to Berroa’s 84 in the voting (10 first place votes to Berroa’s 12). It appears based upon the voting that there was, if anything, a pro-Japan bias. Interestingly, both Mark Teixeira and Jody Gerut slugged more homers and had a higher ops than either Berroa or Matsui, and yet they finished 4th and 5th, behind Rocco Baldelli in 3rd.

In 2006, Justin Verlander won the AL ROY in a landslide, sweeping 26 of 28 first place votes. Kenji Johjima (C Sea. then age 30) put up some pretty good numbers for a catcher (18 hrs, .783 ops in 506 ab), and earned a 24.0 VORP (Value over Replacement Player, published by Baseball Prospectus), which was dwarfed by Verlander’s 47.5 VORP. In the NL, Hanley Ramirez (42.2 VORP)clearly prevailed in the voting over Ryan Zimmerman, with Takashi Saito (rp - LAD - 33.6 VORP) tied with Prince Fielder with 2 points. Nothing to see here.

In 2005, the AL ROY was Huston Street (Oakland’s closer), clearly prevailing over Robinson Cano (NYY), Johnny Gomes (TB) and Tadahito Iguchi (CHW). Of the three hitters, Gomes had the best ops (.906 - vs. .778 (Cano) and .780 (Iguchi)) in 180 less at bats. The NL ROY was Ryan Howard, with no Japanese contenders.

In 2002, the NL ROY went to Jason Jennings (S Col) over Brad Wilkerson (OF Was), Austin Kearns (OF Cin) and Kaz Ishii (S LAD). In a hitter friendly park, Jennings went 16-8, with a 4.42 era and 1.46 whip in 185 innings, to Ishii’s 14-10, 4.27 and a (whopping) 1.58 whip in 154 innings. Assuming, arguendo, that the ROY choice was either Ishii or Jennings, Jennings wins by default.

Since the back to back ROY awards won by Sasaki and Ichiro, no deserving ROY candidate from Japan has been overlooked. What are Matsuzaka’s chances for this year?

From Baseball Prospectus, the AL ROY candidates ranked by VORP:
Jeremy Guthrie (BAL) 28.2
Reggie Willits (LAA) 22.8 (and storming)
DiceK Matsuzaka (BOS) 21.3
Hideki Okajima (BOS) 20.1

Two out of the top four ROY candidates are Japanese. We can safely discount Okajima’s chances, unless Papelbon gets injured and Okajima racks up 35 +saves in the second half of the year. DiceK is up against 2 formidable contenders in Willits and Guthrie. How does he compare?

Guthrie has been on fire, with a 2.42 era and a 4/1 so/bb ratio in 81 innings. Baseball HQ notes in a recent write up that his era is lower than it should be, due to a .24 hit rate and a 6% hr/9 inn. (10% considered average). Otherwise, Guthrie’s performance has been supported by his pinpoint control and a 47/36% ground ball to fly ball ratio. Going forward, Guthrie will need to maintain that control (his K rate of 6 batters per 9 innings is hardly dominant) and keep the ball in the park by inducing a high percentage of ground balls. Guthrie’s minor league stats indicate a walk rate of 3+ per nine innings. Given that he has a somewhat slim margin for error, there will likely be a regression to the mean, with a final era closer to 4.00 than 3.00 at the end of the year. Moreover, there is a significant possibility of a serious second half regression after he passes the 130 ip mark (his average minor league workload). Furthermore, Guthrie will need to rack up a lot more wins than the 4 he has to warrant serious ROY consideration. (Whether wins should even be a factor in ROY voting is beyond the scope of this post).

DiceK? Since May 5, he has lowered his era from 5.45 to 4.01. In 98 innings, he is striking out more than a batter an inning and walking roughly 3 per 9. His hit % is “normal” at .32, but the strand rate an “unlucky” 71%, which means that there is more room for improvement in the era by the end of the year. With 9 wins, and 9 more projected for the rest of the year, DiceK could entirely overshadow Guthrie’s stealth campaign.

What of Reggie Willits? His .343 avg. in 198 at bats is inflated by a 41% hit rate, and will likely fall in the second half due to a fair but not great contact rate (84%). Willits has an excellent eye, with a 15BB% and a .444 oba. With 18 steals thus far, Willits could steal 40, perhaps 50 bases. A poor man’s Ichiro, with the more walks and less K’s, and little fanfare to date. If Willits ends the season with 100+ runs scored, 35+ stolen bases and a .320+ average, he will have an intriguing ROY resume.

Clearly, DiceK is an amazing talent, and were it not for his slow start, he would be this year’s Ichiro, and this article would be a moot point. Right now, there are other (at least arguably) more deserving candidates for the ROY. However, I would wager that in a straw poll held today, DiceK would win in a landslide. DiceK has great name recognition, having arrived this year following a bidding war for the right to negotiate a long term contract. In fact, there is a strong possibility that DiceK’s heralded arrival from Japan will increase, rather than decrease, his chances of winning the ROY award over other more deserving players.