Has Verlander become an Ace?? Well, almost. Here’s our view.Fresh off his no-hitter there has been a lot of buzz around Verlander. I thought it might be interesting to take a look and see if he has become the stud that fantasy owners have hoped for.

Right now it appears he is still a step short of stud status. His numbers as of today look to all the world like he is a top 5 or ten pitcher:

8-2 2.90 ERA 1.16 WHIP 7.4 K/9IP.

However he has been helped by a low hit rate of 27%. BaseballHQ has his xERA (expected ERA)at 3.83. The Hardball Times has his xFIP (his expected ERA independent of fielding) at an even more pessimistic 4.40. I think the record here indicates that he has been lucky so far.

His skills are very solid but not at elite status, confirming the somewhat pessimistic view of the HQ and Hardball Times metrics: 7.4 K/9IP, 3.2 BB/9IP, 2.3 K/BB ratio. These numbers reveal that he still has a bit of an issue with his control. However he has shown very nice gains over his short career, driven by an increased strikeout rate:

2005: 5.7 K/ 9IP 4.1 BB/9IP 1.4 K/BB ratio
2006: 6.0 K/9IP 2.9 BB/9IP 2.1 K/BB ratio
2007: 7.4 K/ 9IP 3.2 BB/9IP 2.3 K/BB ratio

He has shown nice growth in his K rate, however his control is still below ace levels. Again, he looks like he is a year away from top pitcher status.

Interestingly, if you look at his last month, he has faced the Indians, Rangers, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. In that time he has pitched like an ace against some formidable offenses, though he caught Texas whose offense is terrible, and Milwaukee who was cold. Over this run he is 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, of course with a no-hitter to boot. His xERA over this period is a much less pessimistic 3.35, and he increased his K rate to over 9 per 9IP.

So overall, he is very close. On skills it appears that he is still a year away, but his recent run of success against some good offenses should at least give us pause to think he is primed for a great finish for the rest of the year. He may not be a stud right now, but by the end of the year he should end up with at least 16 wins and an ERA in the mid threes, and a WHIP below 1.200. Would this make him a stud?? Any better than that and you would have a good argument.

Here, off the top of my head, are some AL pitchers that should outperform him (or at least those I would rather have) for the remainder of the season: Sabathia, Santana, Haren, Lackey, Shields (at least I think so, and I sure hope so!), Escobar, Halladay (if healthy), . Keep in mind when you read this list that I am accounting for the fact that there will be an overall correction in his ERA over the remainder of the year as he regresses to the mean.

Those that have a chance to outperform him, but not as certain: Blanton (and I almost put him in the first list), Schilling (if healthy), Bonderman, Matsuzaka, Bedard, King Felix, Bonser (yes, Bonser!). And I am not including someone like Rich Harden who is hurt right now, nor any relievers. I may be missing someone, so feel free to chime in.

Personally, I would rather have almost all of the pitchers on both lists for the rest of the year with the exception of Schilling and maybe Blanton. So even if he continues on his current excellent pace, I would have to say that he is not yet a stud, and probably not yet a top ten AL pitcher. But that is no knock on him. I am sure his owners are very happy right now.