Fantasy Baseball Generals

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Fantasy All Stars–NL Starting Pitchers

July 2nd, 2007 · No Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

Our continuing look at our All-Stars.
Continuing to hold my nose:

It is a traditional truism that you would rather have an NL starter than an AL one. But not this year. Aside from the number one guy in the NL none of the others would crack the Al top five. As C.C. Sabathia said: “DH Schmee H.” Feel free to look it up.

1. Jake Peavy–The truest harbinger of things to come for him this year was the fact that I paid $30 for him in my high stakes auction, the first pitcher in ten years that I paid $30 for in an auction. He has been worth even more so far, but not a whole lot more, which is why you don’t pay big money for pitchers. That will be another column. As an aside, the league has a 1400 IP minimum with an 11 man staff, so good innings can be tough to come by since it is 11 teams with 32 man rosters.

Peavy so far probably is the best pitcher in baseball. 9-2 2.09 ERA 1.05 WHIP. 30% hit rate says he is for real, and his K/BB ratio of 3.8 with almost 10 K/9IP echoes this. I probably take Sabathia by a nose, but it is a short nose.

2. Ben Sheets–a tough call at number two, but it is Sheets by a nose (sorry, this isn’t a horse racing blog), but a few lengths behind Peavy. 10-3 3.19 ERA 1.15 WHIP are excellent, but he has been a bit lucky, and has never won more than 12 games in a season, hard as it is to believe given his talent. I watched him pitch in Philly earlier this year and his stuff wasn’t as impressive as t used to be, but I looked up in the seventh inning and he had a 5 hit shutout going. That’s why he gets the number two slot, over…

3. Brandon Webb–Much like Erik Bedard in the AL, his W-L doesn’t tell the whole story. His 3.05 ERA is for real; he has an xERA of 3.24 and a 30% hit rate. He hasn’t been lucky. His 61% groundball rate with 7.6 K/9IP makes it awfully tough on hitters; he is what Felix Hernandez should be right now.

4. Roy Oswalt–Have we reached a point where he is now underrated?? He has been killed in the last month by a 40% hit rate, much like Felix Hernandez (OK I am irked that he isn’t better since he is on my high Stakes league team). He is chugging along with no really bad starts this year, but his K rate is a bit down from the past. Now I know why he is flying under the radar. The fact that he gets in to the NL top five is an indictment of the NL. As is the guy at number 5…

5. Chris Young–Here is a guy due for a big fall, but his first half gets him into the Top 5. 8-3 2.14 ERA 1.09 WHIP is “all sorts of fantasy goodness” to quote Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz. However, his peripherals portend a large correction. His 27% hit rate and 80% strand rate call out for a correction, and his xERA is 3.96. To get to 3.96 from 2.14 will definitely be all sorts of fantasy badness.

6. John Smoltz–The old man of the group, but still going strong. What an amazing career he has had! Let’s hope that he doesn’t get forgotten by the crusty old BBWAA. This year he has a 9-4 2.98 1.22 line, and has been unlucky to the tune of a 335 hit rate. He still gets those Ks and avoids walks with 8.1 K/9IP and 1.9 BB/9IP. Very solid and has a rightful claim to the top five; if you want to quibble with me feel free.

7. Cole Hamels–Ugh, what has the NL come to? Not that Hamels isn’t a good pitcher; 9-4 3.87 ERA 1.22 WHIP. He wouldn’t be an All-Star in the AL. He gets my nod here because he has been unlucky with an xERA of 3.43, and his 9.3 K rate and 2.3 BB rate all look good. The fact that he is a flyball pitcher doesn’t help in Philly.

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