What would have happened if the Astros drafted Derek Jeter as Hal Newhouser insisted?? I try to quantify what would, and could, have occurred.
Those readers who are even vaguely interested in baseball history undoubtedly know Hal Newhouser. He was a back-to-back MVP as a pitcher during wartime in the 1940s, and is a Hall of Famer (of marginal merit in my view). You can click on the link for his Baseball-reference.com page.

After his playing career, Newhouser became a scout, eventually for the Astros. In the lead up to the 1992 draft, Newhouser insisted that the Astros draft Jeter. Newhouser, in fact, apparently discovered Jeter. The Astros passed, drafting Phil Nevin instead. Newhouser was so incensed that he quit. Nevin played 18 games for the Astros, before being traded to the Tigers and having a creditable career.

So, what would have happened to the Astros had they drafted Jeter?? Yankee fans will no doubt confirm one of Newhouser’s key bits of scouting on Jeter; namely that he was a leader as well as a tremendous talent. Figuring out how Jeter’s “leadership” would have affected the team is beyond calculation, so I leave that question to speculation. However, we can calculate roughly how much better the Astros would have been.

There are a few ways to do this. Since we are dealing with broad strokes, I will look at Jeter’s WARP, or Wins Above Replacement Player, (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus) as compared to the Astros’ shortstops. The WARP metric considers defense, and is adjusted for league difficulty. It should give us a basis for at least a good overall look.

So, here is a list of the Astros’ shortstops from 1996-2006, with their WARPs compared to Jeter. I will start in 1996 because that was Jeter’s first full season and his first with a positive WARP. I apologize in advance for the format, it is tough to do this in table form for a computer unsophisticate like me:

1996–Orlando Miller 1.6
Jeter 4.4
Difference–2.8 Wins
1997–Tim Bogar 2.0
Ricky Gutierrez 1.0
Jeter 4.4
Difference–1.4 Wins
1998–Ricky Gutierrez 5.3
Jeter 6.8
Difference–1.5 Wins
1999–Tim Bogar 1.9
Ricky Gutierrez 0.7
Jeter 8.8
Difference–6.2 Wins
2000–Tim Bogar 1.0
Julio Lugo 2.4
Jeter 5.5
Difference–2.1 Wins
2001–Julio Lugo 2.7
Jeter 5.4
Difference–2.7 Wins
2002–Julio Lugo 2.2
Jose Vizcaino 0.7
Jeter 4.8
Difference–1.9 Wins
2003–Adam Everett 2.6
Julio Lugo 0.2
Jose Vizcaino 0.1
Jeter 3.5
Difference–0.6 Wins
2004–Adam Everett 2.5
Jose Vizcaino 1.4
Jeter 6.2
Difference–2.3 Wins
2005–Adam Everett 2.6
Jeter 9.4
Difference–6.8 Wins
2006–Adam Everett 3.8
Jeter 9.6
Difference–5.8 Wins

Wow. There are a few things that stand out. Who would have thought that Ricky Gutierrez was ever, even for one year, as good as Derek Jeter in his prime?? Yet, there it is; in 1998 Gutierrez was “only” 1.5 wins worse, and was better than 4 of Jeter’s seasons. Well, at least he has something to tell his grandkids.

Another is just how good Jeter has been the last two years. Aside from 1999, Jeter has gotten a lot better as he has moved in to the traditional “decline” phase. Just don’t tell Barry Bonds’ detractors.

The total difference is 34.1 wins, a huge total. But that doesn’t tell us that much about the difference; we need to look at it on a season by season basis. So here is a summary of the Astros season from 1996-2006:

1996–Finished second at 82-80, 6 games back of the Cardinals. get used to these second place finishes to the Cardinals; it is a recurring theme for Astros’ fans. Jeter would have gained them about 3 wins, not enough superficially to change their fortunes.

1997–Finished first 84-78. Lost in NLDS to Atlanta 3-0. Here Jeter may have made a difference in a game, but would not likely have changed the series’ outcome. In the NLDS the Astros lost 2-1, 13-3 and 4-1.

1998–Finished first 102-60. Lost in NLDS to San Diego 3-1. Here is a series where Jeter likely could have turned the tide, and at least given them a good chance to win. They lost Game One 2-1, Game Three 2-1 and Game Four 6-1. In the two 2-1 losses, Gutierrez was 0-4 with two walks, no RBI and no runs scored.

1999–Finished first 97-65. Lost in NLDS 3-1 to Atlanta. Here we cannot say that Jeter likely would have affected the outcome. They lost the three games by scores of 5-1, 5-3 and 7-5. I do note though that Jeter was over 6 wins better than what the Astros put on the field, so it is arguable here, if we want to get into chaotic confounding factors.

2000–Finished fourth 72-90 23 games back. No effect.

2001–Finished first 93-69. Swept by Atlanta in the NLDS, by scores of 7-4, 1-0 and 6-2. Lugo was 0-4 batting second in Game Two. Here there is one game where Jeter may have made a difference, but probably not a series altering difference. Jeter was 2.7 wins better than Lugo during the season, so a two-win difference out of three is speculation.

2002–Finished second to St. Louis with an 84-78 record. They were 13 GB of the Cards, so no effect here; Jeter in one of his worst seasons, was only 1.9 wins better than what the Astros put on the field.

2003–Finished second at 87-75, only one game back of the Cubs. This is a tough case; Jeter was only 0.6 wins better than the Astros triumvirate, in what has been his worst season. Certainly though, it is as likely as not that Jeter makes a difference here. No matter what the numbers say, I have to believe that he would be worth one actual win over Everett and two well below average replacement players. Since the numbers are close, I will use my license and say that the Astros win the division with Jeter.

2004 and 2005–Twice they finished second to the Cards, however both seasons found them more than ten games back; 13 in 2004 and 11 in 2005. So, no effect.

2006–Finished Second to the Eventual World Champion Cardinals. What a difference Jeter would have made here! The Astros were 82-80, only 1.5 GB of the Cards. Jeter was almost six wins better than Everett. An easy victory for Jeter and the Astros. Maybe the Astros would have won the World Series instead of the Cards!

These numbers show just how difficult it is, even for a Hall of Fame caliber player, to make a difference by himself on a team. Baseball is not the NBA of NFL where one player is all you need if it is the right player. Only once during these years did the Astros even have one above average shortstop; 1999 with Gutierrez. Yet, changing from a below average group to a Hall of Famer would only have arguably changed their season outcome in a few instances; clearly Jeter would have changed the outcome in 2006, and arguably in 2003, and if we want to really extend speculation, in 1998 when they lost two 2-1 games to the Padres.

It is too tempting to pass up an opportunity to speculate on putting Jeter into a lineup with Bagwell and Biggio, so I won’t pass up the opportunity. In 2003 they only needed another 0.4 wins above what Jeter produced to win the division. It isn’t too hard to say with relative certainty that the effect of putting Jeter in the Astros lineup, even during his worst season, would achieve this additional 0.4 wins.

Additionally, in the 1998 NLDS, Jeter may very well have turned the tide. Gutierrez was 0-4 with two walks. Let’s look a bit deeper at what his did. Retrosheet allows us to look at play-by-play of each games, so lets see the circumstance of Gutierrez’ failures.

In Game One in the Astros Third here is what Ret
rosheet says:
ASTROS 3RD: Gutierrez struck out; Ausmus singled to second;
Hernandez allowed a passed ball [Ausmus to second]; Hernandez
allowed a passed ball [Ausmus to third]; Johnson was called out
on strikes; Biggio struck out; 0 R, 1 H, 0 E, 1 LOB. Padres 0,
Astros 0.

A hit by Jeter to lead off the inning followed by an Ausmus single would have scored a run on the passed ball. I realize this is impossible to prove of course, but it is also a reasonable outcome; it is not like we are asking for a Grand Slam.

ASTROS 5TH: Alou struck out (catcher to first); Everett flied to
center; Gutierrez was called out on strikes; 0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 0
LOB. Padres 0, Astros 0.

Likely no effect here. Gutierrez then struck out leading off the eighth:
ASTROS 8TH: JOYNER REPLACED LEYRITZ (PLAYING 1B); Gutierrez was
called out on strikes; Ausmus struck out; CLARK BATTED FOR
JOHNSON; Clark walked; Biggio struck out (catcher to first); 0
R, 0 H, 0 E, 1 LOB. Padres 2, Astros 0.

Game Three:

ASTROS 2ND: Bagwell was hit by a pitch; Alou singled to center
[Bagwell to second]; Everett grounded into a double play (second
to first) [Bagwell to third, Alou out at second]; Gutierrez
walked; Ausmus forced Gutierrez (third to second); 0 R, 1 H, 0
E, 2 LOB. Astros 0, Padres 0.

ASTROS 5TH: Everett lined to second; Gutierrez walked; Ausmus
flied to center; Hampton struck out; 0 R, 0 H, 0 E, 1 LOB.
Astros 0, Padres 0.

Here Gutierrez did something positive both times, so he won’t be penalized; we will say no effect here.

ASTROS 7TH: Alou singled to shortstop; Everett singled to right
[Everett to second (on throw), Alou out at third (right to
third)]; Gutierrez was hit by a pitch; Ausmus flied to right
[Everett to third]; CLARK BATTED FOR HAMPTON; Clark walked
[Gutierrez to second]; Biggio walked [Everett scored, Gutierrez
to third, Clark to second]; MICELI REPLACED BROWN (PITCHING);
Spiers struck out; 1 R, 2 H, 0 E, 3 LOB. Astros 1, Padres 1.

Here it is very tough. Kevin Brown was tiring, and was replaced in the inning. Gutierrez was hit by a pitch, something positive. But, a hit here could have really turned the tide. With Everett on second a hit scores a run, Brown (if he isn’t pulled right there) then would have loaded the bases; giving them a good shot at taking the lead. It is not a stretch to say that Jeter could have gotten a hit off of Brown there.

No matter what you think about the speculation though, tantalizing as it is for Astros fans and baseball fans, I do believe that the Astros win the division in 2006, the Cards don’t win the Series and the Astros make the playoffs. Perhaps Tiger fans have the biggest gripe!!

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