A relatively unknown relief pitcher for the Padres is lighting the Majors on fire. But the answer to the question above is: “perhaps the luckiest pitcher in the Majors.”

Perusing the lists of the most extreme performances to date I came across a certain Padres relief pitcher whom I knew very little about; Kevin Cameron. Right now he is looking more like Mariano Rivera and not an unknown journeyman.

Cameron is a 6′0″ 190lb righty who made his ML debut this year. He was originally drafted by the Twins out of Georgia Tech. As with any other minor leaguer coming up, my first task is to check what John Sickels says about him. Each year Sickels publishes The Baseball Prospect Book, a compendium of his views and analysis of what seems like 1,000 minor leaguers each year. I have talked about the expert’s weapons before; this is a key weapon if you are in relatively deep or keeper leagues.

Anyway, John gave Cameron a Grade C, which is a common grade. In 40 games last year at that Mecca of Wealth and Prosperity, Rochester NY (and yes I have some unfortunate experience with Upstate New York) Cameron pitched in middle relief, and pitched fairly well, though he was 26 and no real prospect. He was 6-4 with a 2.98 ERA and a .216 BA against, all very good numbers.

From a scouting perspective he appears to be a fringy righty. I am no scouting expert, as I readily admit. However, readers can thank Keith Law for the following scouting report. Those readers who don’t know Keith, he is formerly of Baseball Prospectus, and the Blue Jays front office. Keith is currently doing great work at ESPN Scouts Inc., and graciously agreed to help me with scouting reports. Thanks Keith!! Here is his report on Cameron:

Classic sinker/slider guy, neither pitch is plus. Fastball 88-90 with good sink,slider 77-81 with a short but soft break. Fringe-average command - hard for him to repeat that ultra-long arm action - and below-average control.He’d have a hard time pitching this well if he played anywhere else.

Cameron hasn’t had a problem adjusting to the majors, pitching like he came down from a higher league: 34.3 IP 0.52 ERA, 7.9 K/9IP. He is getting 53% of his balls in play on the ground, and only 28% fly balls. Pounding the ball down in the zone and getting K’s is a recipe for success. Looks great right?? Well, not quite.

On the down side of the ledger is his 6.0 BB/9 IP rate, and a 1.25 WHIP. But what really sticks out are his 95% strand rate and 23% hit rate. Yes those are his actual numbers. For reference, the normal strand rate is 70% and the normal hit rate is 30%.

His expected ERA is 4.09, with an over 3.50 difference between his actual and expected ERA! There are no other pitchers with 30 IP or more with as great a difference. The 95% strand rate, 23% hit rate and 3.50 difference between his actual and expected ERA roughly translates to the luckiest pitcher in baseball.

This is a good lesson in sample size; almost anything can happen, and probably will, in 30 IP. That ERA comes from his letting up two ER in his 30 IP. Proceed with caution. And, if you are a Padres fan, just hope he doesn’t blow up in September.

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