Matt discusses how his draft strategy landed him the best record and regular season points scored title. In my head to head AL/NL 12 team fantasy league, I have been fortunate enough to win the points title, barely edging out Pat after he stuck his nose in front on the penultimate day of the season. I have also won the last 13 weeks of head to head matchups.

To what do I owe my success? A combination of a good draft strategy, smart free agent pickups and, of course, lady luck.

In this league, the head to head matchup lasts for one week, with the higher point total getting the win. The scoring system and rosters:

Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3OF, DH, 5SP and 2RP. (9 bench reserves, any position ok)
Scoring for Batting Categories
1B - Singles 1 point
2B - Doubles 2 points
3B - Triples 3 points
BB - Walks (Batters) 1 point
E - Errors -1 point
HP - Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR - Home Runs 4 points
R - Runs 1 point
RBI - Runs Batted In 1 point
SB - Stolen Bases 2 points

Scoring for Pitching Categories
BBI - Walks Issued (Pitchers) -1 point
BS - Blown Saves -2 points
CG - Complete Games 2 points
ER - Earned Runs -1 point
HA - Hits Allowed -1 point
HB - Hit Batsmen -1 point
INN - Innings 3 points
K - Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
L - Losses -3 points
QS - Quality Starts 3 points
S - Saves 4 points
W - Wins 9 points

Generally, the difference between a win and loss is correlated to the number of pitching starts each team has for the week (i.e. - who has the most “double starts), provided that the team with more starts has pitchers worth double starting. In the first two years of this league, smart owners filled their bench with pitchers (and still do), and always had a spot open for a “rent-a-pitcher.”

This being a mixed league, there were always adequate pitchers to pick up for the double start who could be then dropped the next week. To get the best rent-a-pitchers, you simply needed to be ahead of the curve: pick up pitchers more than one week ahead of their scheduled double start. I have done well in this league, having contended for the points title and making the playoffs each year.

This year, the commissioner attempted to tamp down the rent a pitcher strategy by expanding the reserve rosters so that all the acceptable pitchers would be taken. To a degree, it has worked. It also had the effect of making a solid pitching staff more valuable, so that you can maximize the double starts from your own reserve roster. (Incredibly, there are some teams with 4 or more hitters on the bench - taking up valuable double start potential).

So on to the draft. My general philosophy is to make safe picks in the first few rounds and look for guys with upside in the middle rounds. If they crap out, middle round picks are much easier to replace in the free agent market.

Round: 1 - Alfonso Soriano

Taking an elite pitcher right away is risky because they get injured with greater frequency than hitters. Losing a first round pick is disastrous, as you are replacing that player with a free agent. My brother took Johan Santana with the first pick, and Carpenter in the late second round (over Jake Peavy - ouch). He may miss the playoffs because he got nothing from his second pick all year.

I took Alfonso Soriano with the ninth pick in the first round over David Wright, Grady Sizemore and David Ortiz. That didn’t work out so well for me, given that he has been outscored by all three. Well, there’s always the playoffs for him to shine. Plus, if I had Wright, I may not have picked up Ryan Braun on a flyer when he was called up. Braun has been a vital cog to my team.

Round 2: Lance Berkman

I took Berkman over Jeter, Vlad and Dunn. A non-sexy pick that has outpointed Manny Ramirez, picked two spots earlier. Not a home run, but he has given solid production.

Round 3, (33rd pick): Jimmy Rollins.

A steal. I was so glad that he fell. An elite, power/speed shortstop run scoring machine. My first “good” pick.

Fourth Round (pick 40) - time for a pitcher. Carlos Zambrano was taken at 33. I had Josh Beckett ranked higher (Peavy and Oswalt were already gone) and grabbed him. I felt he was primed for a great year, and thus far, he has delivered.

Round 5 - (57) - Jermaine Dye.

Another Lance Berkman type. Fortunately for me, the picks got better as the draft went along.

Round 6 (64) - Matt Cain

A disappointing year, but has improved his control lately, and has strung together a few good starts. Not too late to salvage the season. What stings is that I let Pat get CC Sabathia a few picks later. He will not last past 15 next year.

Rounds 7 and 8: Chris Young/AJ Burnett.

Time to grab some solid middle round picks who could emerge. Young clearly did. He’s leading the league in ERA, with a disappointing win total hurting his Cy Young chances. Burnett’s had his moments, and is pitching well just in time for the playoffs.

After Eight Rounds, My roster looks like this:

A. Soriano(OF)
Berkman(1B)
Rollins(SS)
Beckett(SP)
Dye(OF)
Cain(SP)
Ch. Young(SP)
A. Burnett(SP)

Three hitters early, then 4 out of the next 5 picks starters. Beckett and Ch. Young have pitched like #1 starters, and I got them in the “early/middle rounds.”

Round 9 - Billy Wagner

It was time for a closer. Maybe a little early here, but Pat took BJ Ryan one round earlier.

Rounds 10 and 11: Rickie Weeks and Eric Chavez.

I loved Weeks, he betrayed me. That’s OK, I have a new love (see below). Eric Chavez was a default 3b pick; I needed to fill a position and there were no other attractive options. Again, getting Chavez paved the way for picking up Ryan Braun. Serendipity.

Round 12: Brad Penny.

I’ll thank Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus for this one. He pimped Penny in a column and I took a chance. Another important cog in the roster, also pitching like a Number 1 Starter.

Rounds 13 and 14: Jason Jennings/Michael Barrett.

I thought Jennings could work out; he didn’t. I was high on Barrett (or something) and drafted him in both keeper leagues. I stuck it out through the Zambrano incident, convinced he’d turn it around. Finally, I picked up Chris Snyder while he was hot, and he has produced pretty well for a catcher over the last month. [Lesson, you can get an acceptable catcher in a 12 team mixed league as a free agent, so don’t draft one too early.]

Round 15: Craig Monroe. Nothing to see here.

Round 16: Jason Isringhausen - the next two relievers to go after Izzy were Dempster and T. Jones. Getting the last reliever on this “tier” netted me 70-80 points in our league. Draft tip: recognizing the end of tiers is another important skill.

Recap of Rounds 9-16:

Grabbed both closers; filled out the infield, all with bust picks, and took two starters, one bust, one smash hit.

Rounds 17 - 23

At this point I have filled every position except DH. The starters are flying off the board at this point, so better to grab one if it makes sense.

Round 17 - Ted Lilly

I’ve always liked him. Lilly’s has always been able to get the K’s. His key is control within and outside the strike zone, which manifests in gopher balls and walks. Moving to the NL (even the hitter friendly Wrigley) usually bodes well for any pitcher. This late in the draft, Lilly was a steal.

Round 18 - Brandon Phillips(2b)

Phillips, the #1 point scorer of a 2b this year, is probably as responsible for my success as any other pick. I took him because he was the best hitter available. The depth at 2b was a plus (admittedly, I was not worried about Weeks). His power/speed combination makes
him just a notch below Utley (who has more points per at bat). Coming off a 2006 campaign, his first with the Reds, in which he flashed power and speed, I felt he could have the type of year I expected from Weeks.

Rounds 19-23

With my starting roster filled, I took 4 starters here, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle:
B. McCarthy
M. Pelfrey
Gorzelanny
Prior
Livan Hernandez

Ok, so only one worked out, but Gorzelanny has been a great producer this year. I actually took Pelfrey over Maine, thinking that Pelfrey had more upside. Yes, Prior was a bust. I saw Livan as a possible double start horse who might work out.

Free Agent Pickups

Looking at the draft, a large number of picks went bust. It is important to replace those busts with producers from the waiver wire. A lot of owners cut bait on some good players mired in slumps. With this deep a bench, it’s ok to stash a couple of hitters on the bench whom you can insert once they get hot. Rather than cutting bait on a high draft pick, a temporary fill in is not a bad strategy while before you throw the baby out with the bathwater by dropping a Pat Burrell right before he tears it up in August.

Best pickup:

R Braun. I knew he could hit, and there was the opportunity with Milwaukee with nothing special at 3b. If he could field the position adequately, he just might stick. I picked Braun up on May 28 and dropped Jesse Litsch, a SP on the end of my bench. He’s been a top scorer ever since and will be a top 30 pick next year.

Honorable mention:

Carlos Pena - only 2 weeks ago. what was this guy doing available? He may be my best hitter in the playoffs.

Other hitter free agent pickups:
Corey Patterson, Jose Guillen.

Pitcher free agents:
Too many to list. Scott Baker and A Cook are currently producers on my roster.

During the year, it was much easier to pick up a free agent hitter than a pitcher. Clay Buchholz and Tim Lincecum did not remain on the waiver wire very long. Hitters like Pena, Patterson, Guillen are available at any given time.

Next year, I will try to follow the same formula for success: draft your core hitters early, then a deep stable of starting pitchers, and late round picks with upside, combined with some will timed free agent pickups.

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