The Rays get the most out of some “free” talent.

The Devil Rays are poised to make some big leaps forward in the next three years. They look a lot like the Brewers did, and though they are in a tough division, they may still be able to make some big strides. Some of their success will be built on their tremendous base of prospects, almost too many to count, coming up through the system. However, the Rays have shown a knack for picking up some freely available talent and getting some use out of them.

Carlos PenaLet go by the Yankees (and I am sure they would love to have him back now), the Rays took a chance on the former Rangers’ draftee and journeyman. Given a chance by the Rays, he has blossomed into an All-Star caliber player.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ WARP statistic, Pena has been worth 7.8 wins over a replacement player. Since the Rays essentially had a replacement level player before Pena, I think it is fair to say that he has been worth the full 8 wins to the Rays. Eight-win players don’t exactly grow on trees.

Pena’s line is 38 HR 106 RBI .278/.395/.614, for a 1.009 OPS, a tremendous accomplishment. Only A-Rod, Magglio Ordonez and David Ortiz best Pena’s mark.

It is not luck either. Pena has a 72% contact rate, and a 30% hit rate, both in the normal range. If he were batting .300 then we could say based on that low contact rate that he was performing above expectations. However, BaseballHQ has his xBA at .294 so it is fully supported by his skills.

He is also walking in 16% of his plate appearances, a very solid number. Among everyday players, only Ortiz, Thome and Hafner exceed his walk rate. So, even though he is striking out a ton, his overall batting eye is still a very solid 0.69 (K/BB ratio)

As the folks at DRaysBay.com correctly point out, Pena should win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. It is hard to see how he could be denied. They also astutely mention that Maddon’s detractors (of which there are many) act as if Pena was guaranteed to have a big year.

Brendan Harris I have the pleasure of having picked up Harris in my high stakes league. Harris has been a valuable fantasy player, especially if you are in a deep league, and he has been just as valuable to the Rays. He has generated a 2.3 WARP, a very respectable showing, and a solid improvement over what the Rays had before him.

His 2.3 WARP is the result of solid skills and a bit of good fortune:

10 hr 55 rbi 4 sb .283/.338/.420 8% walk rate 81% contact rate 33% hit rate

He has been a bit lucky in the hit rate department, though unlike pitchers a rate of over 30% does not mean a regression is coming forthwith. So at least it is possible it is sustainable. No matter; Rays’ fans can be happy with what they got out of him this year, even if he ends up in the grand scheme of things as a placeholder.

Al ReyesI picked up Reyes as a free agent in my Head-to-Head mixed league after I lost BJ Ryan for the year in April. He has also been tremendously valuable, even more so during the early summer. He has since tailed off a bit,and has been victimized by the Rays defense, though he is not alone in that category.

Reyes is 2-2 with 23 sv and a 4.70 era. His skills though are excellent, and he has been on the short end of fortune’s stick. He has a 4.07 fielding independent era, as calculated by The Hardball Times. He has struck out 11.1 batters per nine innings, walking 3.0 for a ratio of 3.7, an excellent number.

Not only has he been victimized by the Rays’ defense, he has been shortchanged in the strand rate department. He has only stranded 65% of his runners, well below the norm.

As a result, his xERA per BaseballHQ is 3.65. This differs from FIP in that FIP measures what occurred on the field and adjusts for it; xERA projects what should be the case given normal “luck”.

Overall this is a very solid year for Friedman and Hunsicker. Obviously their success going forward will be determined by culling the what from the chaff in their gaggle of prospects (and making sure they actually grow some wheat). One key factor in the transition from rebuilder to contender is being able to make the best available use of free talent, and so far the outlook is rosy.

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