Some thoughts on his rookie year, and whether owners should be concerned.

Is there anyone in the fantasy world who wasn’t high on Alex Gordon coming into this year? Last year in my high stakes league I auctioned him for $5, and was able to trade him for Justin Morneau in the midseason as his speculative value was so high. That trade sure worked out for me.

I was reviewing pre-season projections for Gordon today from a few sources and not one thought he would be a flop. Yet, here he is, a flop.

Here is a comparison of Alex Gordon and Player X:

Player X was a player that I always think about when I am considering rookie flops. He was a highly touted power source that flopped his rookie year. He went on to have a tremendous career. Player X was a rookie when I first started becoming serious about fantasy baseball, and so is forever burned in my mind. He is Mo Vaughn.

Owners of Gordon can’t go overboard with worry, there is no reason to think he will not turn into the star everyone predicted. At least not yet. Many players have similar “flop” rookie seasons only to go on to tremendous and even Hall of Fame careers.

The tale of Gordon’s season can be seen in his first and second half splits:

Through June–6 HR 22 RBI .237/.305/.372
Since– 9 HR 37 RBI .278/.311/.494.

That sharp jump in slugging is mirrored by a sharp jump in batting average. It is a hoary dictum that a rookie’s second half is more telling for the future than the first, and though I generally loathe such dicta, here it seems that it is true.

Gordon’s monthly splits and skills also show us promise for next year:

Alex has made consistent and steady gains throughout each month of the second half. A big cause for concern, however is his inability or refusal to control the strike zone. After a solid 12% BB rate in April, he has vacillated between 3% and 7% for the rest of the year. Additionally, he is not making great contact, with 72%-77% contact rates in the second half.

A low walk rate coupled with a low contact rate is not a recipe for success. Alex will simply have to gain better control of the strike zone if he wants to succeed in the majors. Of course, Mo Vaughn had the same problem, and in his next year after the one above he had a .390 OBP and was over .400 each year during his prime.

Is it possible this is Buddy Bell’s doing? Normally I don’t put too much credence in managerial influence, but I was reading the Royals Review blog today, and there are a multitude of complaints against Buddy Bell. They even point out that he is the first manager in a long time to be 200 wins below .500, a stat of which I was not aware. They do a good job, on an almost daily basis, which is sad for Royals’ fans, pointing out his many errors.

There are many factors at play here, and I am no Royals’ expert, I merely point this out for completeness. Some managers just simply can’t develop or don’t get the most out of young talent.

Given Gordon’s minor league track record, short though it is, and all of the scouting reports, there is every reason to think he will do better controlling the strike zone next year. He certainly can do it, but whether he will (a la Hal Chase) is an open question.

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