Of these big three prospects, there is a clear pecking order for 2008.

Of these three, there is a wide gap in their rookie performances, and in what can be expected for 2008. I asked Keith Law to provide his scouting take on the three, and will update my analysis once I get the reports. For now, let’s look at them in order of worst to first:

Homer Bailey As far as I am concerned, I never liked him as a prospect and still think not only is he overrated but he will struggle to ever have success in the majors. His minor league performance just wasn’t that good compared to his contemporaries on the top prospect list.

His major league rookie year was a total washout:

45.3 IP 5.76 ERA 1.57 WHIP 29% hit rate 62% strand rate 5.22 xERA.

While he was a bit unlucky in the strand rate department, his xERA clearly shows that he was not ready for the majors, and even with a normal strand rate we couldn’t have expected too much from him.

His 2006 minor league season was significant for a very lucky BABIP in A ball. Granted that a truly great pitcher at the minor league level can maintain some surprising BABIP numbers simply by dominating the competition. This was not what Bailey accomplished.

At Saratoga he had a .247 BABIP but a 3.33 ERA. As a result, his performance was a lot worse than it appeared on the surface, and his PERA (Baseball Prospectus’ Peripheral ERA, namely what would be expected based on his peripherals) was a noteworthy 5.22. This was not a dominating performance by any stretch.

He did much better upon his promotion to AA, but a 5.22 PERA at A ball by a young pitcher should have been a caution flag. Through 2011 Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA only has him as less than a 3 WARP pitcher every year. Were it not for the fact that he was a first round pick he probably wouldn’t be in the majors.

I have to be pessimistic here since he is clearly not ready and probably won’t be for a few years, and yet he will be pushed into the rotation to take his lumps in a ballpark that favors offense. My opinion is that he will be far overvalued in 2008, so be wary in auction leagues.

Phil Hughes His rookie season was creditable:

5-3 4.46 ERA 1.28 WHIP 28% hit rate 67% strand rate 4.37 xERA 7.2 K/9 IP 3.6 BB/9IP

His xERA shows that he was definitely a major leaguer, and a slightly above average one at that. His K/BB ratio is at least at the minimum acceptable level for a starting pitcher that you would want on your fantasy team at 2.0. This rookie season is definitely a success and hopefully he will improve his skills.

In contrast to Bailey, BP has him as a 4+ WARP pitcher for the next five years. The big concern here will be how much the Yankees push him next year if he is in the rotation. A large increase in innings may be to his detriment, he isn’t yet through the injury nexus, and has a history of elbow and shoulder inflammation and tendinitis. Hopefully the Yankees will hold back on him a bit, but all signs look good. Were it not for the injury concern he might be the best of this bunch.

Yovani Gallardo In my mind he was always the cream of the crop among the group of young studs (as some of my fantasy opponents can attest) and he still is. Aside from a large blip in Colorado his rookie season was excellent in all respects:

9-5 3.67 ERA 1.27 WHIP xERA 3.79 31% hit rate 72% strand rate 8.2 K/9IP 3.0 BB/9IP

Be wary if you are in mixed leagues of overdrafting him, but in NL only leagues or auction leagues he is the real deal. However, if he is available in an auction this year it is very likely that he will be overvalued. In my high stakes league he will be kept, but if he were in the auction he might be a $20 pitcher.

In 2006 he pitched 150 innings in the minors and about 110 this year, so he can handle an increase to about 180 next year, which should keep him in the rotation all year. An improvement off of this rookie season could make him a top 15 pitcher in the NL. Again though he is not through the injury nexus and that can always rear its ugly head at any moment. But with a good team behind him he can be a great pickup next year.

Curiously, Jake Peavy and Chad Billingsley come up as comparables for all three of these guys, and in all three cases Peavy is in the top three comparables. I do not see Bailey ever reaching that status, but Hughes and Gallardo can. PECOTA is somewhat less sanguine than I, seeing Gallardo as a below 3 win pitcher though the next five years, but that may change when they are republished using this year’s stats.

Hopefully I will be able to update this with some scouting analysis soon.

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