At First Pitch Arizona, Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan had some thoughts on various players and whether their 2007 season was a fact or a fluke. Here are some of my thoughts.

In a Baseball Prospectus “Unfiltered” post (their blog) Joe Sheehan, one of my favorite baseball writers, discussed his participation in a “fluke or fact” presentation at Ron Shandler’s First Pitch Arizona. I wish I could have been there, and Joe did his usual top notch analysis.

But, reasonable minds can differ, and there were a few players about whom I differ with Joe. So, I won’t repeat the whole list, but will point out the players about whom I differ with him.

Ryan Braun Sometimes it seems like I am the only person in the baseball world who doesn’t love Braun. As I pointed out in my earlier article comparing him to Miguel Cabrera, a 6% walk rate and a BB/K ratio of 0.26 is not the stuff of great players. Plus, with a xBA of only .289 and a 37% hit rate, and a minor league record that is not that of a future MLB MVP contender, I think he is a fluke. He will be a good player going forward, but will be overvalued by fantasy players. Since I don’t own him, I sure hope I am right.

Travis Hafner I don’t 100% disagree with Joe on his assessment of Hafner as a fluke. But I did want to point out that 2006 is an outlier in his career, and probably represents a peak that will not be reached again. So in that sense 2007 was not a fluke if your expectations are of him repeating 2006. But in the sense that 2007 is far below his expected level, which I think is much closer to 2004-2005, then Joe is right that it is a fluke.

Fausto Carmona I have to think his season was largely a fluke. He had a 28% hit rate and a sparkling 77% strand rate, both of which should temper next year. His K/BB ratio is only 2.2 just above the minimum needed for an ownable starter in fantasy. Granted, other pitchers, as Joe points out, succeed with similar profiles, but they are few. I have to see Act II before I will say 2007 is a fact, so for now I have to go with fluke. Once caution though is that his K rate increased as the season wore on, and if that trend continues then 2007 may be a fact.

Some general comments:

I 100% agree with Joe on Posada, Dmitri Young and Jack Cust as HUGE flukes. Be wary in 2008. Posada should be one of the first player brought up for bidding in auctions. Brian Bannister is also a fluke, but not to the same extent as these guys.

Vernon Wells, Josh Barfield and Dave Bush (much to my chagrin) are also facts, sadly though on the bad side of the ledger for their owners. Also, like Joe, I am not sure what to make of Jeremy Guthrie, though I am tempted to say fact and not fluke. I just hope that his second half fade isn’t his true level since I own him in my high stakes league.

Anyway kudos to Joe for a job well done.

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