A look at five 35+ year-old veteran hitters who might be undervalued at your draft.

First, I’ll start with a quick introduction about myself. My name is Mike Podhorzer, I’m 25 years old, and I’ve been playing fantasy baseball for over 10 years. I live in New Jersey, but I’m a Braves fan, and it needs to be said that Paul Konerko is my favorite player, thanks to the wonderful world of card collecting. I’ve always loved numbers and baseball is the ultimate game of numbers and statistics. So, naturally, I became a fantasy baseball addict. Now, on to my first (of many, hopefully) column…

Does drafting a “boring” over-the-hill veteran with no perceived upside make you cringe? There are many fantasy owners who refuse to draft anyone other than young, exciting players who have substantial upside. This spells opportunity for you to swoop in and grab the older veteran that might come cheaply. Below is a list of 5 hitters who are 35+ who could be undervalued at your draft, whether coming cheaply at auction, or dropping too far in a straight draft. The Dollar Value I list is from CBS Sports’ projected $$ values for a 5×5 12-team mixed league. I include this to support the possibility the below hitters will be undervalued.

Legend (all metrics from The Baseball Forecaster):
BB%- Walk Rate
CT%- Contact Rate
BABIP- Batting Average on Balls in Play
xBA- Expected Batting Average (a formula by John Burnson combining Contact Rate, GB/LD/FB rates, Power Index, and Speed Index)
PX- Linear Weighted Power Index (using a base of 100, compares hitter’s power to the rest of the league)
HR/F- Home Runs per Fly Ball Rate, or the percent of fly balls that are hit for HRs

Carlos Delgado, 1B, Age: 35, $6
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By all
measures, Delgado was a bust in 2007, and at age 35, many might expect the decline to continue. However, if we look closely, especially at his 1H/2H splits, you see that it was really just a terrible 1H. In the 2nd half, his walk rate bounced back to levels close to his previous 2 seasons, his BABIP rebounded to make up for his unlucky 1st half, his PX crept closer to his ’06, as did his HR/F rate. Clearly Delgado is declining, but in a solid lineup, and coming off a better 2nd half, we might see a small rebound from him in ’08, with his HR total closer to 30 than 20.

Raul Ibanez, OF, Age: 35, $7
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After a career fantasy year in ’06, many owners were probably disappointed by Ibanez’ ’07 season. However, it is rare that a 34 year old would reach a new skill level and maintain it for the next couple of years. What fueled his ’06 was an aberrant HR/F of 17%, way above his norms. The ’07 season was same old steady Ibanez. A big 2nd half saved a potential big bust season, after only hitting 6 HRs in the 1st half. Other than a declining walk rate, there seem to be no real signs of an impending big decline. So expect another “boring” season from Ibanez in ’08.

Jeff Kent, 2B, Age: 40, $5
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At age 40, Kent has been remarkably consistent, still producing a stable skill set. Health is probably the biggest worry right now, as he seems to randomly miss games here and there. However, with no real negative trends, other than a decline in his walk rate, another similar season to his ’07 should be expected. Kent’s low 1H average was driven by a fluky 27% hit rate, which corrected itself in the 2nd half. We even saw a nice spike in contact rate that improved even more in the 2nd half. With the addition of Andruw Jones, and talk of the Dodgers’ best hitters crazily all being slotted towards the end of the lineup, Kent could see some extra runs and might very well score more than he drives in.

Frank Thomas, DH, Age: 39, $2
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Frank Thomas is one of my favorite players and I will be rooting loudly for him when HOF voting comes around, being one of the best hitters of all-time in my opinion. But back to the ’08 season- Thomas is clearly declining, with a falling walk rate, expected batting average, PX, and HR/F. The lone bit of good news is that his contact rate has remained steady and is much improved from the ’03-’05 seasons when it was below 80%. The PX did rebound in the 2nd half, and his average improved after his BABIP reverted to the mean. Thomas should hit cleanup again and produce solid RBI totals, while still providing 20+ HRs. The run total won’t help as he’s as slow as molasses and will get pinch-run for late. The DH-only eligibility also limits his value, but he should still remain a solid, cheap source of power and RBIs, while not really hurting your average too much.

Jim Thome, DH, Age: 37, $9
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Another DH-only eligible player, Thome has continued to post elite power skills, finishing with a 197 PX in ’07. This is another skill set yet to see any obvious indications of a pending decline. The walk rate has remained steady, as has the contact rate and BABIP. His expected batting average is right in line with his actual averages, and his HR/F hasn’t fallen off at all, actually matching his ’03 season when he hit 47 HRs. The only real warning sign is his inability to hit lefties, as he hit only .196 versus them in ’07. The worry is that he begins losing playing time against them and becomes a platoon player, but that would help his average anyway. However, I’d be giving Ozzie Guillen too much credit to even consider that he is aware of Thome’s platoon splits. With an improved Sox lineup, the only thing in the way of another 30-homer season for Thome is his health, of course.

With that said, I’m obviously not suggesting you load up on undervalued veterans. I just wanted to highlight the fact that older hitters shouldn’t automatically be avoided. Many still have a stable skill set that you could pick up cheaper than the stats warrant because everyone is always so enamored with drafting the next Ryan Braun.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.