A look at over/undervalued players at each position.

Moving on with our look at the top 250 from MDC’s ADP report as of Feb 23, we’ll check in with the shortstops. If you missed any of my previous positon articles, you can find them here: Catcher, 1st Base, and 2nd Base.

Overvalued

Derek Jeter (37th overall, 4th amongst SS)- It’s all in the name, apparently. His SB totals have been all over the place the last couple of years, so it’s hard to project with any certainty what you’ll get. However, he’s 33 and his Speed Index plummetted to below 100 last year, so it would be smart to expect no more than low to mid double-digit steals once again. And with all his ground balls, the HRs aren’t returning. His batting average has been consistently higher than his xBA, so it’s apparent he has some sort of skill that xBA isn’t measuring. But one of these years his BABIP is going to drop into the low .300’s, leaving him with “just” a .300 average, instead of the .320 or so average his career line is close to. Simply put, he’s just not worth that much to be going so early.

Yunel Escobar (211, 16)- Wasn’t surprised to see his name on the report as he seems to be a popular sleeper pick. I was actually going to include him in my Not a Sleeper series if I had continued on with that. A .367 BABIP propped up his average and is most likely the reason he’s being drafted this early, as people are only looking at that .326 line. He did hit .333 in AAA in ‘07, but in only 180 ABs, and that followed only a .264 AA average in ‘06. He has very little power, having hit only 10 homers in 836 minor league ABs (and a .118 ISO SLG%) and has stolen 14 bases, but with a pathetic 50% success rate. He’ll score some runs if he hits lead off all year, but other than that, his upside seems to be Yuniesky Betancourt who isn’t in the top 250 and probably not even being drafted in most mixed leagues.

Undervalued

Julio Lugo (227, 17)- The .237 average was dragged down by a .265 BABIP, which is far below his career .315 mark. The average should therefore rebound closer to his career .271 line. With 30+ steals, 10 HRs, and a good Red Sox lineup assuring respectable RBI and RUN totals, he’s falling way too far in drafts.

Unfortunately there are no players who stand out outside the top 250. I’ll give an honorable mention to Felipe Lopez, though, as he should greatly benefit from the new park, which have killed his power numbers. Stay tuned for the 3rd Basemen in my next installment.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.