An analysis of popular sleeper Adam Wainwright.

My 2nd choice in my Not a Sleeper series might surprise some people. Unlike Micah Owings, who I profiled first, I have seen Wainwright’s name on many a sleeper list. It’s easy to see why- to start, he was a former top prospect with the Braves and was the centerpiece of the Cardinals end of the trade involving J.D. Drew. He then dominated as a reliever in his first full year in the Bigs in ‘06, even taking on the closer role at the end of the season for a team who (somehow) won the World Series. After his move back to the rotation in ‘07, Wainwright posted a sparkling 2.97 ERA in the 2nd half, causing owners to fall over themselves to move him up their ‘08 draft boards and name him the sleeper du jour. But if we look a little closer, we notice that this pitcher’s sleeper tag should be removed.

2007 Analysis: Wainwright’s excellent 2nd half ERA of 2.97 was boosted by a high 77% strand rate and an unsustainably low 4% HR/F. His 2nd half xERA of 3.97 was exactly 1.00 higher than his actual ERA and is more reflective of his true skill level. I want to point out that his skills did improve significantly in the 2nd half, as his K/9 increased from 5.2 to 6.7 and BB/9 dropped from 3.3 to 3.0. His full-season stats show he suffered from a slightly elevated BABIP, but that was more than made up for by his low 6% HR/F. The low HR/F explains why his WHIP of 1.40 is so out of whack with his 3.70 ERA. Runners were getting on base, but the depressed HR/F rate didn’t allow as many to score as expected.

2008 Outlook: Looking at Wainwright’s Minor League career and coupled with his 2nd half improvements in K/9 and BB/9, he seems capable of posting those numbers over a full season. If we assume a 2.9 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9, coupled with a solid 48% GB rate, we’re looking at an ERA around 3.90-4.00 with a 1.30ish WHIP. Ignoring wins, these stats should generate a fantasy value similar to last year’s. Even with an increase in skills, he’ll be hard pressed to better last year’s 3.70 ERA, and those owners expecting a big breakout to the tune of a low-to-mid 3’s ERA are likely to be disappointed.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.