An analysis of popular sleeper Jon Lester.

The 3rd article in my Not a Sleeper series (article 1 can be found here, article 2 here) takes a look at Red Sox pitcher Jon Lester. A former top prospect, Lester battled back from lymphoma to return to the Sox, making for an incredible story. With Curt Schilling possibly out for the year, Lester is all but guaranteed a rotation spot, not having to worry about phenom Clay Buchholz impressing in the Spring and taking his slot. Before taking a look at the below stats, a quick note- the 2006 and 2007 lines lump Lester’s Minor League and Major League statistics together, with the Minor League stats being MLEs (Major League Equivalences). The 2005 line, however, are his actual stats. Now let’s take a look:

2007 Analysis: Lester pitched 63 innings for the Sox, compiling a 4.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 and 34% GB rate. Including his MLEs, he posted a scary 5.31 xERA, which is the result of spotty control, and too many flyballs. Even his K rate was down, declining for the 2nd straight year. Now, returning from lymphoma, it’s tough to blame him for the declining skills, as the team must have been thrilled just to see his return.

2008 Outlook: As a flyball pitcher with poor control and a declining K rate, it’s tough to expect much from Lester. However, if we assume that he’ll be stronger after another year removed from lymphoma, we could reasonably expect his declining skills to turn back up. For the ‘08 season, let’s go with a 7.0 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and a 38% GB rate. Plugging these numbers into the xERA formula, and assuming a league-average .300 BABIP and 10% HR/F, we calculate a 4.70 ERA. If he’s able to increase his K rate even more, to the mid-7’s and decrease his walk rate to about 4, he could post a mid 4’s ERA. Lester’s problem, however, is that he needs to improve on 2 skills (control and GB%), not just 1, so it will be very difficult for him to dramatically improve. So overall, there does not seem to be much upside here just yet, and to tell you the truth, I probably wouldn’t even bother with him for $1 in a 12-team mixed league.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.