An analysis of popular deeper-league sleeper Micah Owings.

In a departure from my previous 2 strategy articles relating to straight drafts, it’s time to get back to what I’ve been itching to do: write about more individual players! This article will be the first in a series looking at pitchers I’ve seen mentioned as a sleeper in various league types in which I disagree. I have decided to devote posts to individual players, instead of listing all in one article, in order to encourage discussion on each player.

First, I’d like to start out with Micah Owings of the Arizona Diamondbacks. I have noticed he’s become a popular deeper sleeper (hey, that rhymes) for those owners looking past the obvious pitchers everyone is hyping. Searching for the deeper sleeper is a nice idea, however Owings is no sleeper. We all know he can hit, putting up a ridiculous 1.032 OPS in 60 at bats, including 4 homers. But can he pitch?

I usually don’t bother reading a pitcher’s scouting report, preferring to simply analyze his statistics. But for those who do include scouting reports to help project players, then I’ll mention that from what I’ve read, Owings seems to have average stuff. Now let’s take a look at the stats, including 2006 when he was in the minors.

2007 Analysis: Owings benefited from some good luck, only allowing a .280 BABIP, 7% below the league average of about .300. Given that ‘07 was Owings’ rookie year, it is way too early to tell, but judging by his high BABIP in the minors in ‘06, it’s unlikely that he is the rare pitcher with the true skill to prevent hits on balls in play. This low BABIP in ‘07 allowed Owings to produce an ERA .19 better than his Expected ERA. He did improve his skills in the 2nd half, increasing his K/9 and lowering his BB/9, however he also became an extreme fly ball pitcher. With a K/9 of only 6.4, it is very difficult to be successful with a GB% so low.

2008 Outlook: With average stuff, and a AAA K/9 rate of only 6.3, I find it difficult to expect much improvement in his K rate. He does have solid command, however the only way he could avoid being a mid-4 ERA guy is if he somehow figures out how to induce more ground balls. Since pitchers generally maintain a similar GB% throughout their career, it will be tough for Owings to improve this aspect of his game without completely altering his pitching style or maybe learning a new pitch. So what we have is a fly ball pitcher with a mediocre K rate who’s pitching in a hitter’s park. This is not my idea of a sleeper in any type of league. I suggest only paying for an ERA around 4.40, 1.35 WHIP, and about 130 strikeouts if we assume 180 innings. Paying for anything more than that would be too risky, as I don’t really see much upside here.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.<!– div