Five key players from the Dodgers

Oh for the halcyon days of the Paul DePodesta regime. For Dodgers’ fans it is not hard to envision a scenario where the Dodgers could be poised on the verge of NL supremacy for the next few years, and could have easily won the division last year. At least they have a new manager this year, one though as a Yankees fan I have repeatedly critiqued over the years for his poor in game tactics and his refusal to be creative in using the ends of his bench.

The Dodgers’ future rests on better front office and on-field management, and there are a few key players that will decide the Dodgers’ fate:

Matt Kemp Perhaps the foremost among the Dodgers’ young players in terms of skill and angst at their mismanagement of a tremendous on-field asset, Kemp may be the single biggest key to the team’s fortunes over the long haul. I am sure after his first slump Torre will lie awake at night thinking of ways to bury Kemp on the bench. The problem with Kemp in 2008 is that his .342 average last year was a big mirage, as he had an xBA of only .258.

When he regresses he will be in the midst of a slump at some juncture and it will be telling how the Dodgers handle this. Additionally the full extent of his power may not be seen, as he still hit far too many ground balls last year to be a real power threat, hitting 45% of his batted balls on the ground. No great thought is needed to see the storm clouds on the horizon, as Kemp was a focal point (apparently) for a rift between the vets and rookies last year, and we know which way Torre will go on this one.

James Loney Another player who could meet with significant regression this year, resulting in more mismanagement, Loney’s .331 average was also a mirage, as he had an xBA of .303. Yet, with his power developing still, Torre may feel that he needs a more powerful hitting first baseman. Let’s hope he isn’t so far gone that he things Garciaparra can play first adequately. Baseball Prospectus is very bullish on Loney, giving him some high chances of improvement even off his somewhat fortunate season last year, giving him a 28% chance of a breakout and a 52% chance of improving.

Andre Ethier I picked him up for a mere $3 in my auction last week. Thankfully, Baseball HQ is still projecting him as the starter, though who knows what will happen. More likely Pierre gets everyday at-bats, given Torre’s proclivities and the investment in Pierre. Ethier is a nice, solid player right now, with an 85% contact rate and a 9% BB rate in 2007. Ethier’s power, batting average and walk rate all improved in the second half, which is good news. The bad news is his lack of speed, which presents an easy target and sharp contrast to focus undue attention on when comparing him to Pierre. It could be a long, frustrating season for Dodger fans, as management may focus on the things Ethier cannot do as opposed to those he can.

Brad Penny Yet another key cog for the Dodgers who is primed for a fall, Penny will not repeat his success last year in any way. Forget the record; he had a precipitous dip in his K rate last year from 7.0 to 5.8, under the typical benchmark for a successful pitcher when all else is equal. More bad news comes in the form of his expected ERA in 2007, which was 4.54, a far cry from his actual ERA of 3.03. His BB rate also increased from 2.6 to 3.2 making his K/BB ratio slip below the 2.0 threshold.

Chad Billingsley How about some optimism for a change? He was vastly improved as a starter, and his K rate as a starter increased every month, from 7.6 to 9.2. Control is still an issue on paper, but he did drastically improve his control in 2007 from 5.8 BB/9 IP to 3.9. Even a small improvement here can catapult him to the top rank of pitchers. I am very bullish on him in 2008 and the future. So Dodger fans shouldn’t fret, though who knows; he may be traded for Ty Wigginton when the Dodgers need a third baseman. Sorry, couldn’t resist. Let’s hope my psychic powers are overrated.