Five key fantasy players for the Brew Crew.

Rickie Weeks There is not a whole lot to say about him, but I do think he is getting to the point where he is overrated a bit, which is why he makes this column. He still has contact problems at 72% which was balanced last year by a 16% BB rate, though that walk rate is a bit of an outlier for him. His xBA was still only .255 last year, which gives a better view of what can be expected than his .235 actual BA last year, but with contact problems which were even worse in the second half (68%) it is tough to see a huge BA rebound, which depresses his value. He could be a star he could be a bust, but anything in between is not likely in my view so he is a definite boom or bust player. Don’t let me talk you out of him, just recognize that all is not as rosy as one might think.

Gabe Gross A far better choice than Gwynn Jr. in my opinion, Gross is good enough to start for a lot of teams, and there are far worse players with everyday jobs. He had an 80% contact rate and a 12% BB rate with above average power. His BA last year was an illusion, as his xBA was .278. With Mike Cameron not only suspended but in freefall skills-wise, his opportunity may come sooner rather than later. He makes an excellent fourth or fifth OF in NL only leagues with upward potential.

Bill Hall He seems to be one of those players that peaked early, as his overall skills have gotten worse three straight years despite the fact that these were prime growth seasons for most players his age (28). His xBAs the last three years were .303, .262, .257. He is no longer a real 20/20 threat in either category, though he could squeak out 20 HR if everything goes perfectly, but don’t pay for it. He is a good guy to throw out there in your auctions in earlier rounds.

Jason Kendall/Eric Munson Looking at the Brewers it is easy to see how they could be contenders again. However they are going to give up wins on defense all over the field and offensively at the catcher position all year, which could result in another close but no cigar finish. Roughly speaking, these might be the two worst hitting catchers in baseball. Munson is probably one of the worst hitters to get ML playing time in the last ten years; I cannot recall a weaker hitter than him in a while and that is saying something. He routinely puts up hit rates lower than 25% which is pretty clear evidence he is not even a AAA hitter much less a major leaguer. If you draft him or auction him rest assured you will get “Munsoned”.

Kendall had offseason eye surgery, but other than that there is no reason for optimism. His 2007 .242/.290/.309 line is actually a fair indicator of his current skills, as reflected by his .245 xBA and his prodigious PX (power rating) that is a robust 44, or less than half of the major league normalized average of 100. It is unbelievable to me that they cannot find a better option to start the season in a league where they have a shot and every game counts. If they fall short and don’t fix their catcher situation you know where to point the finger.

Manny Parra He is an above average major league pitcher right now so go get him and don’t worry about anything else. BaseballHQ has a Base Performance Value metric called BPV; usually a rating around 50 or 60 is an average to decent ML starter. Granted we are using translated rates from his minor league performance, but in the last four years his BPVs were 136, 121, 138 and 93 last year in the majors. He will be in the rotation this year with Capuano and Gallardo on the shelf and is as good a bet as any young pitcher in baseball to bust out with a huge season. I love Chad Billingsley this year and Tim Lincecum, but would rather have Parra especially when you inject draft position or price into the equation. Lincecum’s projected BPV this year: 91, and Billingsley is 74.