Lots of interesting contrasts with regard to forecasting Miguel Tejada.

I thought very strongly that Miguel Tejada will continue his decline in 2008. So imagine my surprise when I listened to two expert podcasters and friends of this site both set forth very optimistic projections of Miguel Tejada. The two guys in question are Tony Cincotta at Fantasy Baseball Mafia and Paul Greco of Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports and other sites.

Essentially, both cited what I would call “soft” evidence. I discussed this distinction very briefly on Sunday’s radio show with regard to expertise. “Hard” evidence is statistical evidence, and “soft” evidence is non-statistical evidence. These are my own definitions so don’t think that these are accepted definitions in the fantasy community.

In my view, I will not accept soft evidence without corroborating hard evidence. That is to say, when I read the hard evidence to suggest “X” I will not accept a conclusion of “not X” based on soft evidence. Again, this is not a generally accepted tenet in the fantasy world, but it is one I adhere to 99% of the time.

Both Paul and Tony thought Tejada would have 25+ HR, 90 RBI and would bat close to .300. The primary basis for their views was what I would consider “soft” evidence. Normally I would merely ignore the opinion, but coming from not one but two respected analysts, I decided to take a second look and see if the hard evidence could corroborate the soft evidence.

The “hard” evidence strongly suggests that Tejada will continue his decline. Tejada’s PX and SX, two power and speed metrics used at BaseballHQ are both below 100, where 100 is the league average so one can conclude that he has below average power and speed based on his 2007 performance. In 2007 he had a .267 xBA as compared to a .296 BA, which strongly suggests a regression in 2008. This is especially true where Tejada’s power ratings are in decline, since PX is a component of xBA.

Tejada now hits too few flyballs to have significant power. Last year he hit 51% of his batted balls on the ground and only 315 in the air. Now, it is true that he could very well revert to hitting more flyballs. However this will with 100% certainty result in a decrease in BA, since GB are more likely to go for hits and FB are overwhelmingly likely to be outs.

There is more to it than that, but that is enough for now. The hard evidence sets up a solid prima facie that Miguel Tejada cannot hit 25 HR and still bat .300. He may do one of these things if he changes his approach and sees a bit of resurgence, but I think the weight of the evidence supports continued decline.

One could argue about the park, the lineup and how “happy” he is to be out of Baltimore. Indeed, these may be important factors and I may be giving them far too little weight. But if you take 10 players with similar profiles, 8 will do what I suggest and 2 will do what Paul and Tony suggest. I am willing to play the odds here.

This is why getting multiple expert opinions is so valuable and why to really get a good sense for what a player will do you must try to get inside the mind of the experts to see what they see. Paul and Tony see what I do not, and they may be right, but the goal is to take all of the evidence, both hard and soft, and come to a reasoned and logical judgment.

As I have written before there is no substitute for excellent judgment, which will trump planning and knowledge in most instances. In the case of Miguel Tejada, experts may differ on the rationale, but it is up to the fantasy owner to use their judgment.