There was some spirited discussion last night on a few players.

Last night’s show had some spirited debate on a few players, especially Ryan Braun. We had two guests, including Paul Greco of Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports, and the debate on Braun capsulized most opinions on him.

This is a situation where the experts essentially had all of the issues covered; in that sense then who is right and who is wrong is a nebulous concept at best. Readers who have been around this site for a while know that it is my strong view that projections are not precise measurements in the least even though people act as if they are precise.

My view on Braun is as it has always been, I may be right on him I may be wrong but I would sooner engage in a threesome with Kathy Bates and Queen Latifah than draft him in the first round.

One guest, Chris from Pro Fantasy Games stated that he loved Ryan Braun and though he was the seventh highest rated player in their rankings he felt there was some possibility that Braun could be the most valuable player this year. This was premised on the fact that Braun performed closely to A-Rod last year in many ways.

This resulted in some spirited debate. I see no way on earth this happens. No matter what happened last year, Braun needs to show that he can put up another 36% hit rate; if he cannot he will be nowhere near a top five hitter. There is no reason to think he will.

Drafting Braun on this basis means you deserve what you get, both in a good way and a bad way. If you are right you fully deserve the benefit since you will have made an excellent call. If you are wrong you also deserve the loss.

Another player Todd Farino is high on is Jacoby Ellsbury. Todd recently wrote that he thought Jacoby was worth a tenth round pick and that he could hit 12 HR this year. This is unfettered optimism of the highest order. He hits far too many groundballs to hit 12 HRs. Plus, he will still lose some ABs to Crisp unless he is traded. But he could easily get 50 SBs and could be worth that pick. Todd was criticized on the grounds of “value” which I believe is foolish. Jacoby went with the 108th pick, and his ADP is around 125. Since Todd had the “wheel” pick and wouldn’t draft again until the 132nd pick it is folly to say he shouldn’t draft him there even if he loves him simply on the grounds of draft position.

Don’t but into the orthodoxy on value in this situation. Anyone who says they can reliably differentiate, in terms of production, the 108th pick from the 140th pick is not being completely truthful, since projections are not precise enough to do this. Perhaps they can make this judgment, but it won’t be on projections and one shouldn’t be tied down to artificial concepts of value defined by ADPs.

The concept of risk in the first round also came up. Paul Greco had what I believe was the correct view that to play around with the first round is to put oneself in a very precarious position. On the topic of Braun, if he flops this year then you essentially have lost, since you can’t replace that value. The same concept applies with Albert Pujols; who Todd drafted with the twelfth overall pick in a recent expert mock draft.

I don’t see how anyone can criticize the Pujols pick at number 12. That said, I wouldn’t take him there. The risk is too high and there are safer picks. The first round is not where one takes risks hoping for great reward, it is where you draft a safer player who will put up reliable production. You can’t win your league in the first round but you surely can lose it.

It was a great show and an absolute blast to do, so I hope readers will download it and listen. Tune in next week!