Analysis of our roster and a link to overall draft results.
Here is a link to the complete draft results. Our roster is:
Round 1: Chase Utley. We had the ninth pick, he is reliable, and second base is still a bit scarce. This is an obvious pick.
Round 2: Carl Crawford. Crawford had a 99 reliability score on Baseball HQ, and it is always good strategy to follow up a power pick with a speed pick. Crawford has burgeoning power and could also get us 20 HR.
Round 3: Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez has an 89 reliability score and once the big three were off the board, he is in our view the best of the next tier. Chipper is good but has an injury history, and Atkins’ second half last year was a bit of a mirage. Reliability won out.
Round 4: Magglio Ordonez. I had to hold my nose on this one. I am scared of his reliability, but at the time we felt we needed a strong OF and he was number one on our board at OF at this stage by a solid margin.
Round 5: Bobby Abreu. Perhaps a bit of a stretch but as with Ordonez, Abreu was number one on our board and has a bit of power and speed. Targeting power/speed combos was our intent, he fit our plan and we took him, “value” be damned. This should be no surprise by now.
Round 6: Mariano Rivera. We intended to wait until someone else started taking closers before pouncing. Nathan and Jenks came off the board right before us, and with 16 picks between this round and our next pick, taking Rivera was a must here (Papelbon went in round three).
Round 7: Carlos Pena. He is no fluke and it was imperative to us that we have a top player at 1B. The position is surprisingly shallow on top and we didn’t want to have to take a Conor Jackson or Ryan Garko, which could have been disastrous to our strategy. We hedged our bets later on with Mike Jacobs, giving us at least 30 HR potential at 1B no matter what happens. Remember, defense and fluidity!
Round 8: Takashi Saito. An obvious pick once we got here, he has a low ERA and WHIP and we “handcuffed” him later on with Broxton. We need not just saves but low ERAs and WHIPs, so no Todd Joneses or Joe Borowskis for us.
Round 9: Michael Young. I was really hoping to get Furcal, who was taken by Tim Dierkes of Roto Authority. Tim wrote in his site that he thought Furcal had third round production ability,and I agreed. But he went off a bit earlier than I thought. Once Furcal was gone Young was the obvious pick. We needed reliability, and Young has an 86 reliability score and will hit for a high average.
Round 10: Rafael Soriano: Another closer who projects to have a low ERA and WHIP. We had sorted our list by ERA and WHIP. Again, value is a useful but unnecessary concept, and must be subjugated to a solid plan by the expert player. We “reached” again later on with C.J. Wilson on the same grounds. Let no one say we do not practice what we preach!
Round 11: Jermaine Dye. This is a pure skills/Shandlerian play. Dye dropped to us and his first half last year was largely a fluke. His power returned to 2006 levels and his xBA says to expect a return to form. Let’s hope, this could be a key pick for us. Again though, in the interests of playing defense we backed him up with high upside OF in the reserve rounds with Adam Lind and Jason Kubel.
Round 12: Kenji Johjima. As with Young, it would be a disaster for our strategy to end up with a weak. low BA catcher. Johjima is solid and makes good enough contact that he will hit for a good average. Safety and reliability are our friends.
Round 13: Adrian Beltre. He filled out our UT spot with some good power upside. I thought he was a good bargain here (yes I know). He has an 88 reliability score, power is trending to 2004 levels and he has an 80% SB success rate. He is still only 28. Beltre and Dye could be the keys to our season.
Round 14: Joba Chamberlain. He is our handcuff for Rivera, and clearly fits in with our low ERA and WHIP reliever strategy. If and when he goes into the rotation he gives us some additional flexibility in our roster in the event we need to play some starters as a counter to a counter attack.
Round 15: Ian Snell. The first of our “feints.” he is still a solid upside pitcher and certainly will not kill us if we need to play him.
Round 16: C.J. Wilson. He has the skills to be a top reliever despite the park and was the best reliever on the board in our view. Having the fourth closer was an absolute requirement so “value” was again dumped to the trash bin.
Round 17: Joe Blanton. This was our second “feint” and ended up hurting us as we lost out on lastings Milledge, who I coveted, later on. This was because we had to take:
Round 18: Jonathan Broxton. Clearly fits in with our plan, a handcuff to Saito, low ERA and WHIP and high Ks. Though he cost us Milledge (because we could have taken Broxton instead of Blanton and then taken Milledge, who came off the board in a few picks) we felt we had to stick with the plan rather than speculate on Milledge.
Round 19: Rafael Betancourt. An obvious pick for us if anyone bothered to track our strategy.
Rounds 20-26: Here is where we shored up our perceived weaknesses. We got Jake Westbrook, Mike Jacobs, Adam Lind, Jason Kubel, Justin Speier (another high skill, low ERA/WHIP reliever) and Shawn Marcum.
For good or ill (it remains to be seen) we developed a plan, were correct about what other owners would do and how they would draft, and were correct that no one would figure out what we were doing. As a result we executed our plan to a tee, and each player we drafted fits into our plan in fairly clearly defined ways, solving our jigsaw puzzle. All that remains now is to play the games.
12 responses so far ↓
1 Derek Carty // Mar 4, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I liked the plan, and I think you executed it quite well.
Good job, Patrick, and good luck in the league!
2 Anonymous // Mar 5, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Are you concerned that the occasional bad outing by a RP would hurt your chances to win ERA/WHIP in a given week due to having less innings per week to recover from the outing?
3 Patrick DiCaprio // Mar 5, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Of course I am concerned about it, but with the relievers I have chosen I don’t think it will happen too often. Note that it is always a worry, since even if you go the “cheap starter” route you have the same concern. Now though, in a given matchup if my opponent has one starter that blows up I have a very good chance to win.
4 willclarkismyhero // Mar 5, 2008 at 11:07 pm
I enjoyed this post very much. Following your draft step by step with commentary really helps drive home the strategy and the ideas behind it. I gather that this is a weekly head to head matchups league. What were the position requirements?
I play in a league like this one and a guy in our league used a similar, although probably not as well thought out strategy last year and almost went the whole season undefeated only to lose in the playoffs. He drafted closers early and often and only carried a few starting pitchers, but he placed more emphasis on starters than you guys did. I have a couple questions regarding this strategy. You should know that our league counts K/BB, CG and SHO in addition to the traditional 5×5 categories.
First, couldn’t you practice the same strategy but with starters instead of closers since most people are told to wait on pitching in general? You could draft starters with a bent towards K’s and K/BB and dominate those categories. I realize wins are not as predictable, but neither are saves. Also, when using relievers, when one gets shelled, your ratios go through the roof. It seems like using starters and therefore accumulating more innings each week provides some cushion from the occasional bad outing.
Second, what if this same manager and I practice the same strategy this year? If there are two managers doing the same thing, how does that affect the strategy? Keep up the good work. This is exciting stuff.
5 Steve // Mar 6, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Hi Patrick - Love the blog. Just discovered it after putting up with the bland stuff at ‘bigger’ sites. I really like the sound of this strategy too - streaming in H2H is just too much work and my league also counts holds - but unfortunately there are no middle relievers in my league with SP eligibility.
This would mean leaving those two slots empty most days, which is a bit of a waste, really I suppose. Or is it? Would be interested in your comments.
6 Patrick DiCaprio // Mar 7, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Steve I am not sure what your format is, are you saying that you must start two starting pitchers? email me to discuss if you are so inclined.
7 Steve // Mar 8, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Hi Patrick - yes, very keen to discuss. Did you get the email?
8 Patrick DiCaprio // Mar 9, 2008 at 10:12 am
Steve, I will try to give you an answer on Monday. Have my auction today.
9 Patrick DiCaprio // Mar 11, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Steve, given the format I don’t think it is worth it to try this strategy. The key to this strategy was that given the format AND the fact that most of the guys were experts or something close, a more conventional strategy wouldn’t make sense. In a game where you rate to have an edge in knowledge and judgment you should just count on those to carry the day.
That said, feel free though to adapt it to your league and go with all relief pitchers in the other slots. Let us all know how it goes during the year. I wouldn’t leave open two empty slots though.
Good luck.
10 Steve // Mar 11, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Thanks Patrick. I am still pretty tempted to employ the strategy as it’s such a different way to approach things.
I have won this league a couple of times (by streaming and not streaming) so am definitely looking to try something new.
Draft is on Sunday so have until then to decide. If I go with it, I’ll be sure to keep you updated.
Thanks for the input and keep up the great work.
11 Steve // Mar 15, 2008 at 9:50 pm
Patrick - for better or worse I decided to go relievers only and have just drafted. Results below. I reached a bit for Street and Atkins (A-Ram went earlier than I thought), but the way the draft went I don’t think it hurt me too much. I also drafted Broxton and Bell very early but wanted to be sure I got them. Would be interested in any thoughts/comments. Last two picks are horrible but are (currently) MRs wth SP eligibility!
1. (11) Ryan Howard 1B
2. (14) Carl Crawford LF
3. (35) Álex Ríos CF,RF
4. (38) Garrett Atkins 1B,3B
5. (59) Nick Markakis RF
6. (62) Takashi Saito RP
7. (83) Brad Hawpe RF
8. (86) Mariano Rivera RP
9. (107) Jorge Posada C
10. (110) Huston Street RP
11. (131) Heath Bell RP
12. (134) Jonathan Broxton RP
13. (155) Andruw Jones CF
14. (158) Jason Isringhausen RP
15. (179) Édgar Rentería SS
16. (182) Kelly Johnson 2B
17. (203) Scot Shields RP
18. (206) Lastings Milledge LF,CF,RF
19. (227) Pat Neshek RP
20. (230) Ty Wigginton 1B,2B,3B
21. (251) Adam Jones LF
22. (254) Michael Bourn LF,CF
23. (275) Jorge Sosa SP,RP
24. (278) Kevin Correia SP,RP
12 Steve // Mar 21, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Hey Patrick - just wondered if you’d been able to take a look at my team? Would welcome your thoughts.
Also - under what circumstances could you see yourself needing to use a starting pitcher?
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