Some more bad advice from a podcast.
Maybe I am just crotchety today, but I listened to a podcast today that featured some bad advice. Frankly, it is somewhat depressing to me to hear this stuff. I have written about the topic of expertise numerous times here, and will be doing it again in my next Fanball.com premium article and will touch upon it on the show on Sunday. A few tidbits of poorly considered advice is all it takes to sink your season if the advice is followed. The standard or doing more good than harm is simply not sufficient in my opinion, and most supposed experts fall far short of what one should expect.
I cannot say for sure that I or anyone else here on the blog would rigorously meet my criteria, but I am sure that we come pretty close. The podcaster in question is not what I would consider to be an expert.
Here are three tidbits from the show:
1. John Lackey is worth 25-27 in auction leagues. If you think this feel free to join my high stakes auction league. If you pay that much for Lackey against tough competition you will not win. It is a matter of how much he gains at the margins versus other pitchers versus opportunity cost. This is a complicated topic but an expert player should know this. Will he be $10-15 better than Dustin McGowan this year?
2. He stated a rule that he tries not to draft players with batting averages under .280. This would be great if you knew how a player would end up, but sadly I don’t have knowledge of the future. The standard deviation on batting average is very high, far too high for a “rule” like this to make sense. He can avoid Ryan Howard or Grady Sizemore if he wants but I will take two of each thank you very much. I hope by now readers know what I think of such so-called “rules.”
3. This one really kills me. He stated that He thought Prince Fielder would bat .290-.297 and Ryan Howard would hit .270-.275. Why the extra preciseness on Fielder? The upper bound of .297 is to me a transparent attempt to make it seem like he has a little more preciseness than the masses. He could just as easily have said .295. Writers can try very hard to make readers think they know more than they really do.
As I said maybe I am just crotchety today. But it is imperative that fantasy players be able to separate the good advice from the bad.
4 responses so far ↓
1 Anonymous // Mar 7, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Agree with most of your points, but are you really playing in leagues where McGowan is going for $10-17? If so, why?
2 Anonymous // Mar 7, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Without knowing the type of league it is hard to evaluate, but why is Lackey not worth it? In AL only I would think he is. Shandler has him 1st in wins, 4th in starter ERA, 5th in K’s, and with a 96 reliability rating. Maybe you are a little crabby today.
3 rudygamble // Mar 7, 2008 at 4:17 pm
I hear you Patrick…some of this ‘expert’ advice is a joke.
That said, i think you misunderstood his comments on Howard and Fielder. When asked where he thinks Howard and Fielder will finish the year, he did reply 290-297 for Fielder and 270-275 for Howard. But he was talking about pounds not batting average. This would also explain his comment that no one has hit 300 on the Royals since Balboni retired…(Hamelin had to have been close)
4 Patrick DiCaprio // Mar 7, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Anon,
On McGowan that is because in the leagues I play in he is no sleeper, with good competition and high stakes there are few weak opponents. He will go for 12-15 guaranteed in my auction on Sunday.
On Lackey it isn’t about Lackey so much as it is that the advice has no depth. To say he may be worth 27 is different than saying you should actually pay that price for him.
Thanks for the comments.
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