Running the numbers with The Favorite Toy

One of the commenters to this article from Baseball Think Factory ran our suggestions through Bill James’ Favorite Toy. And the winner is:

Cabrera 35%
Cano 18%
Zimmerman 11% (but he hardly played in ‘05…might be more accurate if you use an MLE hit total for that season)
Reyes 31%
Wright 26%
H. Ramirez 16% (again, based on 0 hits in ‘05, which hurts him)

I haven’t yet commented on my thoughts but I like Wright among these players. He has the best mix of skills and doesn’t have “old player skills” like Cabrera, and doesn’t play a tough defensive position like Cano, Reyes and Hanley, though an eventual move to the OF by Hanley is a near certainty. My thought was that Cano was second; he makes great contact, has a skill set that can survive for a long time and doesn’t walk so much that he will lose a large number of at-bats.

I would probably make Reyes third (or at least in my mind before I read these he was third) only because if he ever loses a step, and he will, he could have trouble later in his career, possibly having to pursue the Steve Carlton Path to Retirement. I discounted Cabrera a bit because of the old player’s skills, but it appears that at least based on the Favorite Toy I was off base.

My thanks to “Charter Member of the BadNewsCubs Fanclub” for running these numbers. Great job!!!