Round two of our new weekly series where the Generals discuss important fantasy issues. This week: Is A-Rod an unquestioned number one overall pick?

This week the Generals are addressing who they would select with the number one overall pick. In the MLB Front Office expert mock draft I selected David Wright number one, so it is clear where I stand. I also wanted to welcome Rob McQuown of Baseball Digest Daily to this column; Rob just can’t resist putting his two cents in. Let’s see what the other Generals and Rob have to say:

Rob McQuown: For the record, I finally dusted off my spreadsheets from last year, and in preparing for a 9-team STATS, Inc. Alumni League draft I came up with these $ values (BP’s $ values from their fantasy engine configured with the same league settings added for contrast):

Johan: $48 (BP $53)
Hanley: $43 (BP $40)
A-Rod: $42 (BP $43)
Reyes: $42 (BP $36)

It makes sense that Johan would crush everyone if you use the Baseball Prospectus projection of 17 W, 230 IP, 244 K, 3.01/1.10 for Johan.  For my calculations, I toned down the 230 IP (and the K’s).  But I also think that if he gets 230 IP, he’ll have many more than 17 wins.  I’m not sure who I’d take first but most likely I would take Hanley, but I’d be happy with any of these guys to start my team.

Mike Podhorzer: Yes, in any league format, A-Rod is my #1 pick. However, in 2 of the 3 leagues I’ve drafted so far, I’ve had Hanley valued slightly higher, but within $1. But given the risk from his shoulder surgery and his much lower reliability, A-Rod’s projection is much safer I think, and so I wouldn’t draft Hanley ahead of A-Rod.
 
I know there have been arguments made for David Wright, maybe even Reyes, and of course Ron Shandler’s infamous Cabrera selection. Let me quickly explain why I would never draft either of those three 1st overall. Wright could absolutely end the season being the most valuable player (and other than Hanley, I think has the best chance to unseat A-Rod at the top), but I’ve valued A-Rod between $6 and $8 more than Wright, depending on the league, which is a decent sized difference. Next, Reyes’ average just isn’t high enough to warrant the 1st pick, and he’s a little light on power, despite the 60+ SBs. And last is Miguel Cabrera. This isn’t really all that close. I have A-Rod valued between $14 and $17 higher than Cabrera! Basically, using my valuation method, Cabrera would have to go .351-41-140-120-2 to match A-Rod’s value based on my projection of .304-46-130-125-20. Without contributing anything in SBs, it will be nearly impossible for Cabrera to finish the season as the most valuable hitter.

Jeremy Tomasulo: I love Ramirez and Reyes and feel that both are 1st rd picks in whatever league you are in - if you have steals, they are likely Top 5 picks.  For me, I would go with A-Rod.  Simply put - he is the best player in the game right now.  Even in his off-seasons, his numbers are outstanding.  It is worth that small risk in taking him and hope that he has another 2007 in him.  It is not that shaky of a limb after all :)  Also, A-Rod holds his own with steals, and Girardi may run a bit more than Torre did.  While he is not playing for a contract, you can look at it another way.  He now knows where he will end his career and for an extra-sensitive superstar like him, it may add to his comfort level this season in NY.

Matt Finkelstein: I’m going to stay out on my limb from the prior roundtable question and stay with Hanley Ramirez. Ron Shandler has him with an “upside” of 35 hr. His FB% jumped from 35 to 42, he had 51 steals the last 2 years and is batting leadoff this year. Hanley had better 2nd halves in each of the last 2 seasons. If we’re putting stock in position scarcity, I’ll take Ramirez over Reyes due to the established power and improving skills. Plus, I think Reyes will not end up with many more steals than Ramirez because he will be more selective to preserve those legs.
I know A-Rod is considered the “safe” pick, but he has developed a Bret Saberhagen like pattern of good year, so-so year (for him), which, if continued, would make him in line for a “so-so” year.

William Johnson: Absolutely yes! If I had 100 ‘first picks’, I’d take A-Rod 100 times. Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins, and the rest of the cluster of elite players contending to be selected first are all fine, safe choices. But only one of those players hits on a team with a supporting offense that will ensure some decent ABs, and only one will start the season still in his prime (at age 32) with three 50+ homer seasons, 1500 career RBI, and a lifetime OPB over .380. While he hasn’t performed as well in the most recent two ‘even’ seasons (2004 and 2006), his WARP last year was 11.3 and the even-year-jinx is as likely an anomaly as an indicator of how 2008 will play out. There are other great players from which to choose, but if there is one player that I will never regret taking, it is Alex Rodriguez.

Brandon Heikoop: Personally, I would go with Reyes. The guy will single handedly push you to the top of the pack in steals, so much so, that the rest of the draft you can focus on the ‘cheaper’ and easier to acquire stats, like home runs. While teams are scraping the bottom of the barrel to team one dimensional hitters Kaz Matsui and Michael Bourn, you will already be set and able to take chances on players with high ceilings. The fact that Reyes is still only 25 years old is enough evidence that he is a potential breakout candidate and could post career highs in every category. Also, when you couple this with position eligibility and scarcity, I cannot think of a better player to draft. I would rank the top five as follows: Reyes, Wright, Howard, Rodriguez and Rollins.

Andrew Cleary: I lean more to Bill’s point of view, that A-Rod is about a sure a pick as you can make for a top performer. Though it admittedly feels like slicing things a bit thin to point out worries about other elite first-pick options, I find it hard to come up with a deficiency in A-Rod’s numbers. That said, I do think there is a lot to say for passing on him in favor of picking a dominant one-stat producer like Ramirez or Reyes. As Brandon points out, taking someone like Reyes first means you don’t have to worry about steals for the rest of the draft–pretty tempting bait. And as we’ve discussed recently on the blog, if you’re in a head to head league, a player like Reyes gives you an advantage in the other kind of scarcity: stat-scarcity. Without him, you can put together a team that will total the same amount of steals by the end of the season, but with him you have one of the few teams that can be almost certain of stealing bases every week.