In a March 18 article entitled, “It Doesn’t Count”, Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus – whose work I like and respect - writes, “I’ve been making the point about the meaninglessness of spring training stats all month, and I’m making it again, because I continue to see these stats quoted in stories about baseball as if they have meaning.“ While a lot of Sheehan’s salient points are meaningful, and while it’s a useful “voice” to have in sports media to counterbalance folks who go nuts over spring stats, it’s also dangerously mistaken – especially for roto players.-Rob McQuown

Greetings. Patrick DiCaprio - who is in Jeremy Tomasulo’s roto league with me - has graciously allowed me to submit some blogging material for Fantasy Baseball Generals. I recently have been writing mostly for Baseball Digest Daily, but I also enjoy playing both roto and simulation (primarily Strat-O-Matic) games, and in my two decades plus of so doing, I’ve gained some wisdom of the ways of winning. I hope you enjoy another perspective, and possibly take away something useful.

In a March 18 article entitled, “It Doesn’t Count”, Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus – whose work I like and respect - writes, “I’ve been making the point about the meaninglessness of spring training stats all month, and I’m making it again, because I continue to see these stats quoted in stories about baseball as if they have meaning.“ While a lot of Sheehan’s salient points are meaningful, and while it’s a useful “voice” to have in sports media to counterbalance folks who go nuts over spring stats, it’s also dangerously mistaken – especially for roto players.

The most blatent example of them “counting” was in 2001, of course. Tony LaRussa and Buzz Bissinger documented the situation in spring training that year very dramatically in the great book, “Three Nights in August.” LaRussa wasn’t even considering taking the first baseman who’d destroyed Midwest League pitching the previous year after being the 402^nd overall pick in 1999. But Mark McGwire wouldn’t let him ignore the exploits of Albert Pujols that spring, and the rest, as they say, is history. History, in this case, started with a mammoth .329-37-130 line (.403/.610 OB/SLG) in Albert’s first season.

Last spring, the Reds had an outfielder in camp who was – before camp – considered a long shot to make the team. He’d not played above A-ball, either. And had been selected in the Rule 5 draft. But people were saying things like “Josh Hamilton is the best player I’ve seen this spring,” and they were right… he went on to have a fine – albeit injury-marred - rookie season in 2007, and (to believe The Newberg Report this spring) is again leaving fans electrified this year in spring training.

Usually, of course, it’s nothing that dramatic. But the two primary arguments that Sheehan makes just don’t hold up. First, Sheehan rips the low level of opposition. Of course, you cannot just assume that because Brian Anderson is hitting .349 with 12 extra-base hits in 43 AB in spring that he’s going to do anything like that in MLB. But the players he’s facing are – at worst – minor leaguers who were invited to major league camp and are trying to make an impression. Or major-leaguers working on another pitch, etc. Or retreads trying to latch on with a team. But MLB teams don’t invite players to camp who they don’t think have any chance to make the team at some point during the season… or - when they do - they don’t give them much of a look after the first week, if that.

The other point which Sheehan makes is that of small sample size. Of course, this is true, but again misleading. The small sample sizes are compounded by the fact that the parks in Arizona are notoriously easy environments in which to hit. So, when you see a guy who has 14 professional homers in about 1800 plate appearances (Alejandro De Aza) blast three long balls in his first 38 at-bats (actually, it was quicker than that, but he has 38 now), a reality check is definitely in order. And, in 2006, the M’s, apparently continuing their fetish with White Sox outfield prospects, traded fireballing lefty Matt Thornton for Joe Borchard in spring while he was hitting .324/.351/.559 in 34 AB for the Sox. He – of course – cratered upon joining the M’s, and was soon out of that organization as well. Considering Borchard’s long track record of failure before that, and his terrible contact percentage even during his hot spring run with the White Sox, it wasn’t surprising that he washed out. As every roto player knows, any player can go on a hot or cold streak at any time. Cautions must be taken, but spring streaks aren’t any less significant than regular-season streaks, in terms of forecasting future performance.

So, what can realistically be “counted” from spring performances?

Position Battles:

Obviously, there are some wide-open position battles every year. While The “S” in ESPN is often missing, ESPN.com still publishes some worthwhile baseball information from time to time. Jerry Crasnick is on top of 12 position battles this spring, as noted in these articles:

Grapefruit League: ESPN.com link

Cactus League: ESPN.com link

What “counts” here? Mostly, this is just a matter of reading rotoworld.com and decoding what you read. Here in Chicago, for example, it’s important to note that nobody who’s seen Alexei Ramirez play second base thinks he can handle the position defensively. But he’s hitting the ball hard. Personally, I think his hot start is a typical Sheehan example of small sample size not mattering much, but the ball does jump off his bat… and Ozzie likes him… and with his positional flexibility it seems possible that he could have the Pablo Ozuna role this year and get some playing time. The lack of walks make him an inferior offensive option for an MLB team, and will probably keep him from getting a full-time role… perhaps even getting him demoted to AAA. And Lou Pineilla saying that Kerry Wood’s latest dominant outing makes his decision on the closer “easier, not harder” is just Lou being Lou… he’s notoriously one of the most reactionary managers in the game, and if all three of Howry, Marmol, and Wood don’t end up getting save opportunities in 2008, it will surprise me, and will likely be only because one of them never went cold all season long.

As can be seen from this confusing logic above, it’s not cut-and-dried when spring stats mean something and when they don’t, in determining position battles. And defense is also important. And some “hot” stats are “hotter” than others… Pujols slugged around 1.000 in his big spring, and sustained it deep into the spring, when the opposition got closer and closer to MLB-quality. Hamilton hit .403 last year with 8 walks in 72 AB. Alexei Ramirez is hitting “just” .342, it’s early in spring yet, and he’s only drawn 1 walk… Brian Anderson is more confidence-inspiring, with 7 extra-base hits and 9 walks in his 47 AB, in addition to playing scintillating defense. Obviously, with a player like Anderson, that needs to be weighted against his struggl
es in recent years, whereas Ramirez has no track record whatsoever to use as comparison. For position battles, the competition matters a lot. Nick Swisher in CF would provide the Sox with the most offense, but will be challenged to cover the requisite ground in bigger parks. Owens is a fleet flycatcher, but is at best a #9 hitter in the majors. Since Anderson can cover about as much ground as Owens, and has a much stronger arm, his role on the team is probably dependent upon out-hitting Owens.

Pitcher Health:

Another point Sheehan raises is that sometimes a pitcher will post completely crappy stats for a variety of legitimate reasons (usually working on meddling with his delivery or working on another pitch). For guys you know, you really shouldn’t worry about this too much. But, even for the “known commodities”, there comes a level of badness which has to raise a red flag (see: Zito, Barry and Lowry, Noah). Pitchers are just too fragile, and as a roto player, it’s almost always better to assume a guy’s hurt and move on to “Plan B”. But there are pitchers who are constant health risks whose arms are in great shape for the first time in a while. Manny Parra is wowing people this spring and all my respect for Joe Sheehan and all my hope as a Cubs fan that the Brewers will falter cannot convince me that it’s not significant. Scouts have long raves about his arm, “if he’s healthy”. And he seems to be serving notice this spring. As far as “known commodities”, one injury risk I would not worry about is Ben Sheets. He’s known for not using his breaking pitches in spring, and he’s getting his innings in and throwing strikes. Oft-injured former top prospect Chin-hui Tsao seems healthy, and has fanned 4 batters in 3 IP, though he hasn’t been terribly effective yet this spring in KC.

Young Pitcher Control:

Another pitcher who’s had a hard time catching on is a guy who was a lesser luminary in the Dan Haren deal, but about whom I quipped at the time of the trade that he could have better base stats (i.e. not park-adjusted, not counting W/L) than Haren as soon as 2008, given a chance – Dana Eveland. This is a guy who’s put up silly numbers in the minors, but due to a (perceived or real) lack of commitment (read: he’s fat), hasn’t really been handed the ball and given a job. Leave it to Beane and the A’s. He’s an extreme groundballer, and Chavez/Crosby/Ellis, with an assist from the big foul territory in Oakland will make balls in play turn into outs for him… so, it’s a matter of throwing strikes. He’s throwing strikes in spring, and seems committed to being a major-league starter. Last year’s “bouncing pitching prospect” was (another longtime fave of mine) Chad Gaudin, and - before he got hurt - he was tremendous (look at his first half stats!) Sometimes this category overlaps the previous one, as in the case of Denny Bautista, who finally looks fully healthy, has shown good control, and may eventually provide a serious threat to crappy, er, crafty Todd Jones if Zumaya’s not all the way back. His 10 K’s, 3 BB’s, and just 5 hits in 10.1 IP are turning heads this spring, and his stuff has long been compared to Pedro’s.

Sleeper Relief pitchers:

Every year, we see it… older pitchers who are in the post-prospect stages of their careers, and who haven’t established themselves yet, burst onto the scene as dominant 6th- or 7th- innings guys, and sometimes work their ways into setup or closing roles. Last year in spring, Heath Bell struck out 14, walked 1, and allowed 0 HR in 12 innings. Peter Moylan struck out 11, walked 4, and allowed 0 HR. I cited The Dirty Dozen relievers recently at Baseball Digest Daily (link), and there are countless others who have a chance to be good. Lefty Mitch Stetter (who?) of the Brewers has struck out 11 and walked 0 in his first 7 innings this spring, for example. From the Dirty Dozen list, Grant Balfour has struck out 6, walking 2, in 6.1 IP. Joe Thatcher and Jason Bulger haven’t shown sharp control yet, but are striking people out. Former Independent leaguer Scott Patterson has struck out 5, walked 0, and allowed only 1 hit in 6 innings. Dohman has struck out 7 and walked 2, but has been battered by hits allowed in his 7 IP so far, though none have left the park. De Jong has only faced 3 hitters, but he has gotten them all out, 2 via strikeout. Anyway, that article was a list of suggestions for teams to invite to camp. Once in camp, it’s clear who’s throwing the ball well, and sometimes it’s pitchers that weren’t really on anyone’s radar before the season.

Batter Health:

Usually, this is seen in the negative. Reading that Alfonso Soriano’s legs are still bothering him after an entire offseason isn’t good news for his potential roto owners. Neither are Eric Chavez’s continued back woes. Neither is reading that Albert Pujols is going to need major surgery sometime soon. But I’m discussing the value of pre-season stats here, so which stats can help disclose these injuries? Inflated K-rates for hitters (reduced Contact% to use the Baseball HQ terminology), lots of stolen base attempts (I heard last year that the Rockies were going to try to get Kaz Matsui 40 steals, and I just about choked on my coffee. He’d stolen 30 bases in his first 1060 plate appearances in the majors, and was entering his age-31 season. But, sure enough, after going 5-0 in SB attempts in 46 AB in the spring, he was on pace for 40 steals last year in the regular season (injuries held him to 32, but still a juicy $4 plum for a roto team). Carlos Quentin is an example of a player who could lose playing time this spring unless he proves himself healthy. As noted above, Brian Anderson is making the OF/1b/DH situation in Chicago more crowded, and Quentin had no guarantees even before Anderson started hitting.

Youth Being Served:

This is the most exciting part of spring training for a prospect-watcher such as myself. As noted above, Pujols and Hamilton virtually demanded playing time with their hot springs. Many people have cited Evan Longoria as this year’s “best player in spring” so far. Even though he’s hitting “only” .333, he already has 9 walks and 6 extra-base hits in 30 AB(!) Of course, the Rays will send him down to start the season, because it would cost them a lot of money to start his arbitration clock at the beginning of the year, but he’ll be putting up stats in St. Pete at some point this year. Another highly-regarded masher who is making his team take a long look is Padres Third Baseman Number Two (who has lately been playing a very deep 3b… as in “left field” deep), Chase Headley. Obviously less thrilling for a roto team due to the PETCO effect, he looks like he could be a Bobby Bonilla type player – a switch-hitting powerhouse who can play OF or 3b. Arguing that spring stats don’t count is just silly for guys like Headley. Obviously, if he was hitting .200/.300/.347 or something, he’d be playing for the Portland Beavers in April. But at .371/.385/771, even with the lack of walks, he’s going to be hard to send down.

So - though keeping Joe Sheehan’s warning in mind - ignore spring stats at your own peril! Is AAAA slugger Micah Hoffpauir (.429/.432/.714) or marginal prospect Casey McGehee (.522/..542/.826) going to break into the Cubs starting lineup? Hardly. But you can rest assured that Lou Pineilla will remember them if Daryl Ward falters or goes down with an injury. In
closing, I’ll note two other lesser players who are in camps this spring. At Baseball Digest Daily last year, we did a team-by-team fantasy preview, and I covered a couple divisions. One category I included was “deep deep sleepers” - guys who were sort of interesting in deep leagues as $1 “filler” or post-auction pickups. They both turned out to be nothing in 2007, but might have roles this year. First was Jody Gerut, who – given the outfield situation in San Diego - may see more playing time than one would otherwise expect. The other was Jolbert Cabrera… not much in the way of a hitter, but he used to be fast (who knows any more), and he’s in Reds camp and is exactly the sort of guy that Dusty is prone to overuse. His positional flexibility makes him a potential Willie Bloomquist. That said, enjoy the season, and – unlike Dusty - may you never have to use such weak players!

-Rob McQuown