Phil Hughes has had a rough start to the season, posting a 9.00 ERA, but in just 11 innings. Can we expect arguably the top pitching prospect of the 2007 pre-season to rebound and start showing his potential?

Sometimes when writing these articles so early in the season, I feel like people will be shaking their heads, yelling at me through their computers “IT’S ONLY 2 1/2 WEEKS INTO THE SEASON!!” While this is a valid point, it’s also the precise reason why I virtually ignore ERA at this time. I have decided to analyze Hughes for other reasons than his current ERA, so sit back, relax, and take it all in.

What made Hughes such an elite prospect was that he possessed that rare skills trifecta of strikeout ability, excellent control, and inducing ground balls at an above average rate. He struck out over a batter an inning in his minor league career, while limiting walks and posting fantastic ground ball rates of 52%, 55%, and 64%. So far in his short major league career, he’s still posting a solid K/9, but his walk rate is elevated, which only slightly concerns me. My real worry, though, lies in his GB%.

If you had forgotten, last year Hughes injured his hamstring early in the season. When he returned, speculation was that the injury was affecting his ability to keep the ball down. This logic seemed sensible, and sure enough, his GB% was only 37% for the season. So with an entire off-season to return to 100% health, if indeed it was the hamstring to blame for his dramatic drop in ground ball rate, one could reasonably expect a rebound in inducing grounders to at least the 50% range. If this were to happen, we could have been looking at a nice breakout year as Hughes begins to establish himself as one of the top young pitchers in the game, possessing that venerable skills trifecta along with Felix, Lincecum, and McGowan.

Unfortunately, the mystery has grown, as so far Hughes’ GB% has dropped even further, this time to 33%. Can we chalk this up to the ridiculously small 11 inning sample size? Or is there something more to this that we’re not yet aware? If the hamstring was the excuse for the GB% fall last year, then what’s the issue this year? I haven’t even said anything about the 8 walks in those 11 innings, which could be another warning sign, or again, just a rough patch with his control in such a small sample. I really liked Hughes coming into the year, although didn’t draft him in any of my leagues. I was strongly considering making some buy low offers, but after looking below the surface, I’m staying away for the time being. I’ll be monitoring that GB rate though, and as soon as I see signs that he’s back to his minor league days, then I’ll turn the green light back on.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.