Another of the “True or False” questions: True or False, five years from now, Carlos Gomez will be a more valuable player than Daric Barton.

This is a tough question since it has a lot of ambiguity to it, though on the surface it may seem simple. Let’s first look at fantasy value. In that sense it seems clear that assuming their careers proceed as we think they will Gomez will clearly have more value to fantasy players.

Barton is a fair prospect or better, but at a position where offense is at a premium. Someone once said that the last two guys to succeed with the Wally Joyner/Mark Grace skill set at 1B were Mark Grace and Wally Joyner. Looking forward PECOTA makes Barton a five win player or so, which is decent but just about average or slightly below average for a 1B. By comparison, Adam LaRoche in 2007 was a 4.5 win player.

Gomez, in fantasy terms, will always have that speed, which will always drive his value higher than Barton. PECOTA actually projects Gomez to be a below average player from a baseball standpoint in five years, in fact I was very surprised by just how pessimistic PECOTA is with regard to Gomez. It has him as a well below average player, hitting only in the .260s with 20-25 steals.

However, this is in large part based on the fact that he is so young as his MLE aren’t up to snuff. All it will take is one good season in the majors and his PECOTA will vault upwards.

Assuming Gomez can outdo that very pessimistic PECOTA projection, which I think he will, then I think his value will absolutely be higher than Barton in fantasy terms given the fact that one great skill such as speed can easily drive his value in to the high twenties. A valid comparison would be Juan Pierre, who was typically a $30 player in auction leagues.

In real baseball terms it is an easy call. Would you rather have a below average first baseman or Juan Pierre? I am guessing that given how little speed helps a real baseball team score runs when compared to OBP or SLG that Barton will clearly have more value to his real team. At his peak Pierre was only a 3-4 win player, which is about average for an every day starter, so Barton is more valuable even than Pierre at his peak which is a good realistic case for Gomez.

Another way to look at it is in actual money terms. PECOTA allows us to do this as well, given their MORP rating, or “marginal value (money) above replacement.” Through 2014 Gomez’ MORP is pretty small, again premised upon his poor PECOTA projections, with a value of $12,625,000.

Barton’s MORP is a far more robust $70,625,000. So, when looked at in this way Barton is far more valuable. And this analysis makes sense when considered thoughtfully; it is very easy to find a replacement that can hit .260 with 20 steals, but not so easy to find a five win player even if that is only average at the position.

So the answer in my opinion is that in fantasy terms Gomez will be more valuable as I am guessing that he will at least be a 30-40 steal guy, but in real baseball terms Barton should be more valuable. But this could radically change depending on whether Gomez either shows the ability to hit close to .300 or develops ten home run power.