The Man, The Myth, The Legend.

If you haven’t gotten tired yet reading about Cueto on every fantasy blog, website, and message board after his sparkling debut yesterday, well then sit back and enjoy yet another article about fantasy baseball’s hottest player. We all know how ridiculous his box score line was yesterday, and I’m a little annoyed that the game had to be an afternoon one so I couldn’t watch it with the free preview on MLB Extra Innings. I did watch the MLB.com highlights, however, that I think showed every strikeout, and he certainly looked as impressive as the line score suggests.

BUT, I’m here to temper your expectations. As difficult as it is to find any troubling signs from yesterday’s game, I did find something that makes me uneasy. Cueto gave up 7 fly balls, compared to just 4 grounders. Obviously in a 1 game sample, it’s not the best idea to look too much into this ratio. I’m sure even pitchers like Wang, Lowe, and Westbrook had games where they allowed more flys than grounders. So let’s check out the excellent FirstInning.com site to check out his career minor league groundball rates. They have been all over the place- going back to 2006, and including stops at each level, he recorded grounders 34%, 36%, 47%, 39%, and 54% of the time. With rates below 40% at 3 levels, it seems a good bet to call him a flyball pitcher. This could be a problem, as according to the ‘05-’07 Bill James Park Factors, the Great American Ballpark ranked 2nd in the NL for HR park factor, boosting them by 28%, which is a significant number.

We know by looking at Cueto’s minor league numbers that he has had very good strikeout rates, although not amazing by any means, and excellent control. And after reading scouting reports, we know he has fantastic stuff. But this is still a rookie pitcher with only 22 innings at the AAA level and just 61 at the AA level. It’s rare that a pitching prospect could blow through the minors like this with such little experience and then dominate at the major league level. It should also be noted that the Reds defense is notoriously poor, finishing last year with the 3rd worst BABIP allowed, at .321.

So for owners and non-owners alike, what exactly am I telling you to do? Well for full disclosure, I actually do own him in my main auction league that I commish. I drafted him in the reserve round of our auction. I’m now quite excited after this start as this was my hopes all along, for him to sparkle in his debut, giving me a chance to sell high, really high. I’m personally expecting to have a field day sending out trade offers to see how much I could get for him. After reading on RotoAuthority about people asking whether they should drop guys like Vazquez and Shields, it’s clear there’s an excellent chance of really selling high. The thought of someone considering dropping Vazquez or Shields enough to ask for some 3rd party advice is insane and shows that the hype plus his filthy debut has made expectations for Cueto out of control.

**Note: the following advice is for NON-KEEPER leagues only!!

So for those owners who were smart enough to join a league hosted on a non-Yahoo website (like my league on Sportsline) that actually had Cueto in its database all season, if you don’t own him, I wouldn’t even bother making an offer for him. If you do own him, and as difficult as it might be to part with him, I would start sending out offers, IMs, e-mails, etc, just to test the waters and see how much your competitors are really willing to give up for him. In less competitive leagues, you might be very surprised. I do want to caution however that Cueto has great talent, and it’s certainly in the realm of possibilities that he dominates all year and finishes with a mid-3 ERA or better with excellent numbers in the other 3 roto categories. So with that in mind, don’t instantly trade him for a Jered Weaver, Ted Lilly, John Maine, or Joe Blanton, for example. Aim high!

For the poor souls in Yahoo leagues who have to hope they can claim him off waivers if they want him, absolutely put in a claim and cross your fingers. If you get him, it could be even better than in if you owned him in a league where he’s already been in the database. It’s more likely your Yahoo leaguemates will all have had their eyes on Cueto, waiting for him to be added, and hoping to have been able to claim him. This means he’ll be at the top of every other owner’s minds and they might be willing to give you a ton after missing out on claiming him.

So the final advice is this- if you own him, shop him around to everyone and see how much you can get. If you don’t own him, you probably have 0 chance of getting him without paying through the roof.

For those in keeper leagues, Patrick wrote a nice post earlier today about his thoughts on Cueto vs. Kershaw here.

Like I said above, I’m looking forward to shopping him around in my league to find out exactly how much I can get, and will certainly be aiming high. I’ll let you know how it goes. And if anyone wants specific advice on Cueto, whether it be making an offer for him, who to drop for him, or offering him in a trade if you already own him, feel free to email me or comment.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.