The 2nd metric I will be looking at as part of the Leaders & Laggards series will be Pitcher HR/F (Home Runs per Fly Ball). If you missed my first article focusing on Pitcher BABIP, check it out here. Research studies published in the Baseball Forecaster as well as on other websites have determined that a pitcher’s HR/F generally regresses toward the league average of 10%-11%. As with BABIP, there is some slight outside influences on this number, most specifically ballpark. A pitcher in Citizens Bank Park will most likely have an elevated HR/F ratio, above league average, while the same pitcher in PETCO will probably have a lower than league average HR/F. There is one caveat I didn’t mention in my first article- A pitcher appearing on any of these lists doesn’t automatically mean their ERA should rise (for those on the Leaders lists) or fall (for those on the Laggards lists), since each list only focuses on one metric. A pitcher might be lucky in one metric, but unlucky in another, offsetting each other and leading to an expected ERA close to his actual.

Since most starters have only thrown around 20 innings, many haven’t given up a HR yet, leading to 20 pitchers who currently sport a 0% HR/F. Therefore, I will not be discussing the Leaders in the category since it’s pretty worthless information right now. Instead, let’s just take a look at the top 10 Laggards (actually top 11, since the last 2 are tied):

Roy Oswalt is giving his owners a heart attack. With his K/9 declining for 3 straight years through 2007, and a jump in his BB/9 to 2.6 last season, the first year since 2004 it’s been over 2, the warning signs were clear coming into 2008. So now that his ERA stands at 9 after 3 starts, many owners are probably ready to jump ship, thinking the pre-season warning signs must have been correct, while the non-owners who avoided him are patting themselves on the back for having such excellent foresight. Well, not so fast. A 28% HR/F simply won’t continue, and his K/9 has been normal, while he’s showing fantastic control. He also showed up in the top 10 laggards for BABIP, so it’s clear that his rought start is at least partly due to some terrible luck.

However, there might be some reason for concern. Oswalt felt a twinge in his biceps during his 2nd start, so it’s possible that was affecting him his last time out as well. I don’t know if this has been hurting him for all of his starts and he’s pitching injured, with a DL stay looking possible in the near future, or if this was just a one-time thing that should be nothing to worry about. I hate to end with no real conclusion, but as with so many pitchers, it comes down to health, and we never seem to get the real story in that regard. The peripherals are there, though, for Oswalt to dramatically lower his ERA.

Brett Myers has always had an elevated HR/F ratio. His career ratio is at 15%, of which some of the blame could go to Citizens Bank Park. But maybe something in his repertoire or how he pitches is also causing such a high percentage. Either way, the 19% will come down, but there are other concerns. His K/9 is way down, and reports are saying his velocity has been down. Given how he was thrown into the closer role last year and also missed time due to shoulder problems, this is something to monitor. Shoulder injuries cause a decrease in velocity, which is exactly what is happening with Myers, so it’s very possible that he’s not 100% and still dealing with shoulder issues. I own Myers in 1 league, and am not yet considering buying low due to the health concerns.

Who else is surprised to see Johnny Cueto on a bad luck list? Even in a “bad” outing yesterday against the Pirates, he still had a 6/1 K/BB ratio in 6 innings, and a 1.00 WHIP. As I pointed out in my 2 articles on Cueto, found here and here, he will have problems with the longball, and sure enough, the 2 HRs yesterday are what did him in. Unfortunately my advice to wait for a 3rd dominating start, against the Pirates, before selling high didn’t exactly work out as I had hoped. But the good news is, he still has an 11.2 K/9 on the season and just 1 walk! That’s a ridiculous 24/1 K/BB ratio in 19 1/3 innings. Maybe his 2nd time around the league will provide more of a challenge, but it’s impossible not to have amazing success with that kind of dominance.

His next start against the Brewers, whom he faced just last week, should be interesting and tell us quite a bit. Back to the HR/F, we all know the GABP inflates HRs, but 18% is still too high. Given the peripherals, I calculate that his ERA should be around 2.85. Has he become a buy low? I guess it depends on the owner. Some leagues you might still be able to sell quite high, while others might include the owner who feels like he missed his chance to sell high and is desperate to trade him before he crashes.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.