Yesterday I heard perhaps the worst discussion on how to negotiate a trade on a podcast. Here are the gory details.
To paraphrase a famous quote, it is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubts. Sometimes podcasters do not know what to say, so they say something incredibly dumb and even if it is in the defense of a sound principle it comes off as if they are fools.
Case in point: yesterday a podcaster was discussing trading, and the fact that you can sometimes talk someone into a trade by using bad news. Fair enough and fully legitimate. But the example he used was extremely foolish in my mind. His example of using this principle was trying to use Erik Bedard’s mediocre spring training, and using some negative comments in the Seattle Times, to get someone to trade him straight up for a worse pitcher, Javier Vazquez in his example. In this manner he told listeners they could try to “upgrade” a spot on their roster, like magic.
I am not sure how many times I see this, but it should be clear by now to readers that such advice is terrible. Again and again in the fantasy world second rate analysts or all stripes tout all sorts of “analysis” and strategies that completely ignore the fact that your opponents are thinking beings.
One of the reasons I started this blog was because so much advice out there completely ignored the second level thinking that is absolutely essential to be a winner in anything more than bargain basement leagues. It just amazes me that there is so much drivel out there touted by so-called experts.
If you are in a league where someone drafts Erik Bedard in the second round and is willing to dump him before he even throws a major league pitch in 2008 please let me know so I can worm my way in to that league. In what world will an owner who drafted a guy in the second or third round trade him straight up for a ninth or tenth round pick before a regular season pitch is thrown?
Advice that ignores the fact that your opponents are rational beings is just ridiculous. To suggest that you can steal a high investment player from an owner before a pitch is thrown absent injury or some other wacky factor is just bad advice.
Ignoring what your opponents are thinking may work when you are an analyst and don’t have to answer to anyone because no one calls you on it is one thing; but to do it for real in the heat of battle is the path to defeat. It is easy to start a podcast and say foolish things when no one can call you on it or challenge you; that doesn’t mean the advice is valuable or well-considered.
15 responses so far ↓
1 Kevin // Apr 1, 2008 at 3:11 pm
I think I know who you are referring to (JB?). He is always advising people to attach negative articles on a player when working on a potential deal. What moron can not see through this tactic? He must take everyone he plays with for complete fools.
You would be doing nothing more than insulting the guy’s intelligence, thus killing any kind of trade possiblility right out of the chute.
I honestly don’t know why I even listen to his podcasts because they aren’t very good. In fact they are downright cheesy. The guy is a goof.
2 Phil // Apr 1, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Yes and yes…Keep up the good work.
Also, I tend to see Spring Training stats as only positive, unless a guy gets hurt. Even if an established hitter, or pitcher in this case is having a bad springi don’t hold it against them in terms of drafting.
3 Patrick DiCaprio // Apr 1, 2008 at 5:38 pm
They are a great source of material though.
4 rob // Apr 1, 2008 at 8:47 pm
I think I know the podcast that you are referring to, and I just can’t sit through it, no matter how hard I try. Not even for comedy material.
Look, I’m boring, too… and some could reasonably argue that what I do is nothing more than fantasy baseball masturbation, and who wants to watch/listen to that? Not even my wife.
In fact, my latest podcast review on Itunes has this to say: “Bad podcast, Bad person [1 star].” I had to call my mother to ask her if she has been trolling Itunes again.
This being said, what bothers me about that podcast even more is the fact that I believe he clearly fixes comments made on Itunes about his podcast (probably using multiple pseudonyms)…
There are over 70 reviews for his podcast, and even the big guys like ESPN and CBS don’t even have close to half of that.
5 Kevin Orris // Apr 1, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Wow. I did not catch this podcast, but after reading this article, I have the same feelings as Patrick.
Considering Vazquez and Bedard are more than one tier apart, I do not know that anyone would do this trade.
We have all seemed the tactic before, but I am not a fan. I think it can be very decieving sometimes.
There are much better ways to go about a trade, many of which have been pointed out on FBG before.
6 Fantasy Sports PT // Apr 1, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Which podcast is this? Please email me the name of the podcast so I can listen to it and confirm how bad it was.
7 Kevin // Apr 2, 2008 at 3:56 am
The funny thing is in a previous podcast he was preaching to not low ball your league mates and how he was the “Wal Mart” of trades because he always gives value.
This is what he said the other owner might be thinking that could trigger a deal (try not to laugh):
“Man, what is wrong with Eric Bedard? He must not like playing in Seattle. I can’t believe I drafted him in the 2nd or 3rd round. Ooh, man Bedard’s value’s dropping. Vazquez is having a good spring. Ya, I think I’m gonna do that deal”
He then says guess what…you’ve just upgraded your pitching staff by going from Javier Vazquez to Eric Bedard.
8 Fantasy Sports PT // Apr 2, 2008 at 4:37 am
Where do I direct emails to you guys? I don’t see an email address anywhere…
9 Patrick DiCaprio // Apr 2, 2008 at 12:31 pm
The email link is on the lower right corner; it is thegeneral@fantasybaseballgenerals.com
10 Mike Podhorzer // Apr 2, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Wow, this is painful to listen to. I’m only 10 mins in and I’m not sure I could keep it on long enough to hear the Bedard/Vazquez segment. This guy is so boring to listen to, how does he get a radio show?? It just boggles my mind how some people become successful.
11 Kevin // Apr 2, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Mike - I agree with you. Someone should have tipped everyone off that the Bedard segment was roughly halfway through the podcast. That’s 20 minutes gone from your life forever.
12 Patrick DiCaprio // Apr 2, 2008 at 3:09 pm
“Mike - I agree with you. Someone should have tipped everyone off that the Bedard segment was roughly halfway through the podcast. That’s 20 minutes gone from your life forever.”
That reminds me of Hans Moleman, when stuck in the Kwik-E-Mart. He told Apu “you stole five minutes of my life and I want them back. Ah forget it I’d probably just waste them.”
13 Kevin // Apr 2, 2008 at 3:19 pm
I have lost close to 3 hours listening to this guy. It is so bad it is entertaining. Not sure if it is a Jerry Springer type lure or a car accident kind of thing.
14 Patrick DiCaprio // Apr 2, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Well, this post made it onto the host’s forums, here is a link to see what people over there are saying:
http://jeffboggis.proboards78.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1207065013&page=1
15 rob // Apr 3, 2008 at 9:18 pm
Jeff Boggis?
I was talking about James Brown!
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