Why is Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus simply one of the best columnists around? Because of articles like he wrote this Saturday comparing Tim Lincecum 2008 to Steve Carlton 1972.

Sadly, the article I am referring to is for premium subscribers only, but it is one of the best and most thoughtful articles I have read in a while.  Most baseball fans know that Carlton won 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA for a team that won 59 games, leading Carlton to the Cy Young and the pitching triple crown.  Joe made a comparison to Tim Lincecum and the current Giants.  It is such a great comparison and one that most fans don’t think of at this stage, but he does a great job laying out the argument.

The 1972 Phillies were 29-11 when Carlton started; when he didn’t, they were 30-86 (.259). The Phillies allowed 93 runs in games Carlton started, 2.7 per game. They allowed 542 in the other 116 games, an average of 4.7, or close to twice as many per game!

Joe points out that with Lincecum, the Giants are 5-0 when he pitches, 6-13 when he doesn’t. They’re +9 in run differential and have allowed just seven runs in the five games  in which Lincecum pitched. They’re -41 and have allowed 99 runs in the other 19.

Furthermore:

1. The Giants have scored 12 runs in Lincecum’s four starts, and he has he’s held the opposition to just three runs in those outings.  Lincecum has allowed just four runs in 29 1/3 innings, striking out 36. 

2. Lincecum has let up 27 hits, because the Giants defense 27^th in the NL in Defensive Efficiency (the number of batted balls turned into outs), so that has helped Lincecum has a 38% hit rate. This astounds me since he will certainly get better in the hit rate department, which makes his start all the more impressive.

3. Lincecum has been spectacular so far, and that he has done it with a 38% hit rate is actually a bit scary. Despite the above, Lincecum is 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA despite getting virtually no support from his offense or his defense. As Joe writes:

I half expect that they slip little pieces of paper into the game programs at AT&T Park now—”The role of Barry Bonds will be played by Tim Lincecum.”

So far, Lincecum may be the best pitcher in baseball. He has been helped by a 90% strand rate, which is why his hit rate hasn’t killed him yet. But the hit rate and strand rate roughly balance each other out. The only cause for concern is his walk rate, which sits at a high 4.3/9 IP. His xERA is a very good 3.44. He is getting lots of ground balls with a 47% rate. As I have written before high strike out rates coupled with high ground ball rates is the mark of a true stud and can overcome even poor walk rates.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out, and it would be amazing if he could put up a season like Carlton’s in 1972.  Last year I wrote about why the Royals and others made such a greivous error not taking Lincecum first overall.  They are sure regretting it now.