Another of John Sickels’ interesting True or False questions: True or False, Felix Pie of the Cubs will have an excellent season, hitting at or close to .300 with at least moderate power.

I sure hope it is True, since I spent $6 for Pie in my high stakes auction. But I don’t think Pie is ready to hit anywhere close to .300 in the majors yet.

To hit close to .300 you simply must have a contact rate much higher than his rate of 76%. The major league average is about 80%. With a very low contact rate you also must have a huge walk rate. This is just a mathematical question, since with low contact you have fewer hits so the only way to have a higher batting average is to decrease the denominator by getting less at-bats per plate appearance. Pie had a 6% walk rate.

Another factor is the fact that, as we have mentioned here before, many players get promoted based on nothing more than luck, and when they correct they correct at a higher level so the perception is magnified that they are not able to hit at the higher level. Pie had a .415 BABIP in Iowa in 2007, so he got promoted when he was clearly just lucky. That the Cubs let him rot in the bigs makes it that much worse.

Pie does have the skills to eventually hit close to .300 but not yet. I would be remiss, however, if I didn’t point out that his MLE for 2007 is a solid .283 and he is projected by Baseball HQ to have a .285 average, so with a bit of good fortune it is not inconceivable. Baseball Prospectus is even more sanguine, giving him a .291 50th percentile PECOTA batting average.

Instead of worrying about this I would be happy just to see him get 500 ABs in the majors this year. If he does then watch out because in 2009 he could really bust out. So the answer is FALSE for this year but hopefully TRUE in 2009.