On a recent podcast I heard some discussion about Thome and Konerko, and the view was that they would both return to form. Will they? 

During a recent podcast there was discussion of these two aged sluggers, and the opinion of the podcaster was that they would both return to form. However the analysis did not utilize any “hard” evidence other than to merely rely upon past performance. So I decided I would look deeper and see what could be found.

Paul Konerko

One item that jumped out at me were his hit rates. Like Andruw Jones, Konerko is generally below the 30% norm.  In 2006 he had a 33% hit rate, which was the only year in the last five that he was above 30%. His hit rates generally ranged from 27%-29%.  This year he is at a low 22%. So we would expect him to move ahead, as his contact and walk rates have been constant.  He should get back to the .260 range at a minimum. Or should he?

The power is another story. He is only hitting 36% of his batted balls in the air whereas previously he was in the mid-40s.  He apparently suffered a hand injury in April and it showed in May, as his power has dropped off precipitously, with 0 HR, 4 RBI and a .224 slugging (!).  This performance is sufficiently poor that this injury has to be more severe than we are led to believe. His contact and walk skills have not deteriorated; his ability to drive the ball has.  This is a good explanation of why his hit rate is so low; it may not be luck. Moreover, one of the components of projecting batting average via expected batting average metrics is power; and as the power falls so does the expected batting average and, concomitantly, his actual batting average.

So on Konerko I think there is more to the story than meets the eye. Unless we hear evidence to the contrary, I would not expect a return to form until his power returns to at least a minimal level. He may be hurt and end up on the DL.

Jim Thome

I love watching Thome hit; every time he swings the bat he looks like he will hit a homerun. The problem with Thome is that he is essentially Granderson-esque against lefties, but he won’t be platooned because of his salary. That will severely limit his batting average upside, as it always has, but rarely has he started out this low.

Like Konerko, his basic skill set appears to be unchanged. His contact rate has always been below 70%, this year it is 69%. He is walking in 15% of his plate appearances, as usual.  Like Konerko he has been plagued by a 24% hit rate. His Linear Weighted Power score is a lofty 167, so everything else seems to be fine and he is probably just unlucky.

However, his batting average is low enough right now that it will take a far better contact rate to get into the .280 range. So, unless he goes on an absolute tear, given his low contact rate it is difficult to see how he can do much better than .250 on the season. That will be his lowest batting average since  his debut, aside from his injury marred 2005 season. He has not hit below .266 in a full season in his career except for 2005.

We have enough of a foundation of at-bats now that weighting comes into play, and to get to .280 he will have to hit essentially like he was 27 years old instead of 37.

With the lower batting average he will likely have a lower home run total. Plus he is only hitting 40% of his balls in the air, which is the minimum for a good power hitter, but not enough to look for a home run tear.  Even though he has been unlucky that does not mean he will return to form; he will regress to the mean but likely in a slow enough fashion that it will be gradual. His contact skills and inability to hit lefties will undercut the likelihood of a hot streak.

Analogize it to gambling; it is far easier to go on a hot streak when the house odds are around 1%, like in baccarat, than when they are over 5% as in roulette. The odds act as a gravitational check on how hot you can get. Contact rate works in a similar fashion; the more balls put into play the more likely you can put together a huge hot streak, and vice versa.

So while both Konerko and Thome have been unlucky, both have significant cautionary factors, and a return to form in both cases appears unlikely.