We talk quite a bit in this site about judgment and skill, and knowing your own abilities and flaws. With the proliferation of various fantasy baseball formats, the various basic skills needed of success can get lost in the shuffle. Each format presents its own peculiarities and skills needed to succeed.

What are the basic skills of the successful fantasy player? Foremost among them is judgment. This cannot be taught but it can be developed. The better players will simply make better decisions based on superior judgment.

Player evaluation is next on the list. How do you evaluate players and how well do you do it? Trying to forecast the future is a dicey business, fraught with uncertainty and confounding factors. There are many metrics that assist the astute player in this respect.

Trading is next on the list. However, the format of different leagues renders trading either of the utmost importance or no importance at all. There is generally little “in-between” space.

One that we mentioned last week is the ability to use second level thinking. Like trading, this can either be of tremendous importance or no importance at all.

The ability to use projections is a skill, but one that many have. The better your projections the better you will be able to let your natural abilities see their full flower.  It is not accuracy that is of vital importance, since most of the best systems are generally 65-70% accurate. On the margins though, the key to using projections is understanding the methodology of the particular system, so you can determine when there is good reason to depart from the system.

The last one is the ability to craft a strong strategy. By this we mean the ability to develop a plan that takes into account what the other owners will do, taking account of keeper lists and position depth, planning for the auction or draft etc.

Which skills are most important and in which formats?

High Stakes Auction Leagues, AL or NL only

We will separate higher stakes leagues and lower stakes leagues as a rough guide for the quality of the competition, which in my experience is a fairly good guide. Here I would rank the skills: 

1. Judgment
2. Second Level Thinking
3. Crafting a Strong Strategy
4. Trading
5. Player evaluation
6. Using Projections

The main reason why player evaluation and projections rank last is because in this type of league most of the owners (but not all) will be good at player evaluation and using projections. There is only so much to be gained from these skills.

 Basic AL or NL Only Auction Keeper Leagues 

1. Judgment
2. Player Evaluation
3. Crafting a Strong Strategy
4. Using Projections
5. Trading
6. Second Level Thinking

We are thinking now of the basic AL or NL only “house league,” where the stakes may be medium to low and most of the owners are somewhat casual.  Here the role of second level strategy is greatly reduced, and player evaluation comes to the fore.  

AL or NL Only Non-Keeper Leagues 

1. Judgment
2. Player Evaluation
3. Using Projections
4. Trading
5. Crafting a Strong Strategy
6. Second Level Thinking

This ranking follows from the change to non-keeper leagues. In non-keeper leagues strategy now drops as there is no need to forecast beyond the current season so that the strategical aspect is muted.

Mid-Level Mixed Draft Leagues-Head to Head 

1. Player Evaluations
2. Judgment
3. Crafting a Strong Strategy
4. Using Projections
5. Second Level Thinking
6. Trading

 “Yahoo Type” Mixed Draft Leagues Head to Head

1. Player Evaluation
2. Using Projections
3. Crafting a Strong Strategy
4. Judgment
5. Second Level Thinking
6. Trading

The ranking here may be a bit controversial. In these leagues the owners are essentially casual, and there will be a few skilled owners, but generally not as strong as in the better AL or NL auction leagues. The skills may be there but the knowledge of the player pool even among the best owners will not be as good as equally skilled owners in deeper simply because it is not needed. The better owners here will lack knowledge that the better owners in deeper leagues do not.

Against this type of competition, player evaluation and the ability to use projections are easily the most important. Against the generally weaker competition in these leagues the player who is simply more knowledgeable about the player pool and who has a good grasp of a strong projection system will usually be a contender.

Once we shift to draft leagues, the ability to craft a strategy now jumps back up to a higher level. This is because in a draft you have to be able to anticipate what your opponents will do as the draft proceeds, and this must be at least considered before the draft starts. Additionally, being able to adjust on the fly is more important than in auction leagues simply because of the lack of control that exists in drafts.

Trading is not as important in these mixed leagues. The fact is that when you are essentially dealing with the top and middle of the player pool there is little marginal gain that is obtained in most trades.

The difference between the “yahoo-type” league and mid level draft leagues is that while player evaluation matters equally in both, in a mid level league most players will use a good projection system so that its’ value is muted. There are fewer players that draft from a magazine in the better mid level leagues, though there are undoubtedly some.

A similarity is the fact that no matter what type of draft league you are in, being able to figure out a strong strategy and to adapt on the fly strategically as the draft proceeds will always bear fruit. This skill merits a small edge compared to judgment, only because when you are dealing with as many “known” commodities as you do in a mixed league, judgment drops just a tad.

So there you have it. If you have any comments or disagree with my rankings feel free to email me