It seems like the Brewers are baseball’s version of the traditional Greek Tragedy; they are a generally good team that has one flaw that leads to their demise. Last year it was team defense. This year it looks like the bullpen. What can they do?

The Brewers are currently 16-15, sitting four games behind the surprising first place Cardinals. I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that our own Brandon Heikoop picked the Cards to win the Central. Last year the Brewers barely missed the playoffs, yielding grudgingly in September as they were done in by bad team defense at almost every position.

This year their bullpen appears to be the culprit. Eric Gagne is leading the charge, no doubt miffed that I acquired him for a mere $10 in my high stakes league. It looked like a bargain at the time. Five blown saves already? A 6.14 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP? Ugh. Of course this raises the question of whether this “performance” is real.

Sadly it appears it is. Gagne has a 30% hit rate and a 71% strand rate, both are almost exactly at the norms. As a result his xERA is a lofty, especially for a reliever, 4.66. For the Brewers hoping for a turnaround does not appear to be a winning strategy.

What can they do? Turnbow has been a disaster and is on the way out, possibly to the Mets. David Riske’s luck has finally worn out, so don’t expect a turnaround. His 5.51 ERA is buttressed by a 5.40 xERA, and he has not been unlucky.  Last year he had an 86% strand rate and a 2.45 ERA but a 4.72 xERA.

Conventional wisdom is Salomon Torres, and just in case I picked him up in the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. But by any yardstick Torres is a marginal closer at his best. After that there isn’t much to do. However, perhaps a creative solution is in order, though I will sooner get a date with Amy Adams or Evangeline Lilly  before Ned Yost shows some creativity.

One thing the Brewers have is starting pitching. Where do most good closers come from? Failed Starters.  The Brewers should be able to cobble together a solution. Here are a few candidates:

Manny Parra-Though he is certainly not a failed starter, he is a guy with arm problems in the past, so limiting his innings may be a consideration.  He has always had the skills, even projecting from the minors, to be a closer. His Base Performance Values per BaseballHQ have been far in excess of the 100 level typically needed to be a successful closer, as he has been in the 140 range. He has shown control problems this year, but has the strikeout ability to be a closer and those control problems could be obviated by being a two pitch pitcher.

Dave Bush-He cannot be a successful closer so he has to be out of the equation.  He simply cannot pitch from the stretch, with strand rates consistently below 70%.

Carlos Villanueva- For one year it is possible he could do the job, a la Dan Kolb. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, but has reasonable control, far better to date than Bush or Parra. He has a 2.9 BB rate so far. On the flip side he lets up too many fly balls, which is a recipe for disaster as a closer unless he is lucky on his HR/FB rate.

Of this group I think that Parra is clearly the most qualified and he is talented enough that he could easily succeed.  His overall skill package is plenty good for a closer, with BPV’s far better than 100, with solid strikeout rates.  In 1995 there was a starting pitcher who had the following line:

67 IP   6.8 K/9 IP   4.1 BB/9IP     5.51 ERA     1.50 WHIP. 

This guy had a 4-1 K/BB rate in the minors with 55 BB in 265 IP and profiled with BPV’s in excess of 100. Am I predicting that Parra could be Mariano Rivera? No, but the Brewers have little to lose by finding out.