On the ESPN Fantasy Focus podcast the topic of Guerrero vs. Granderson came up. It seemed like an interesting comparison so here is my take.

Here are two players who, on the surface, appear to be heading in opposite directions. So when do they pass each other? Certainly going into last year there would have been no argument for Granderson, but Guerrero is off to another slow start, and his power appears to be waning.

Vladimir Guerrero

Vlad is off to his usual slow start with a 3-14-.256/.331/.402 line. Baseball HQ was surprisingly pessimistic, projecting him with 22 HR and 89 RBI for the season, giving him a balance of 19 HR and 75 RBI for the rest of the year.  However, Vlad has a solid 82% contact rate and a 10% BB rate, however the contact rate is below his typical norm of 89-90%. Power wise, last year he only hit 27 HR, which on the surface is fairly weak. But he had a career high in doubles, and had a HR/FB rate of 15% with a PX (power score) of 133. So on these numbers one would normally predict a better season in teh power department in 2008.

Looking at Baseball Prospectus, we see that the 50th percentile projection for Vlad’s batting average is .306, but has a 33% collapse rate and only an 18% improve rate. On the flip side Baseball HQ gives him a 92 reliability rating out of 100, which conflicts with the pessimistic BP view.

Curtis Granderson

Granderson has been off to a scorching start since his return, with 5 HR 8 RBI and a .317/.440/.805 line. Baseball HQ projects him with a balance of 17 HR 62 RBI and 15 SB, which is a little bit better than Vlad because of the steals. The interesting aspect of Granderson is the fact that his xBA is .420 (!) and he has been unlucky in the hit department with a 27% hit rate. That xBA is driven by his huge PX to date of 233.

Granderson has a .267 50th percentile PECOTA, with an 11% breakout, 37% improve and 23% collapse rate.  HQ gives him a 27 reliability rating.

So what do we make of this? It appears the decision comes down to security. Guerrero appears to be more secure, expecially in the BA department, though the projections are surprisingly pessimistic. Granderson does not walk enough to be secure in the batting average department, which means that in a given year there is more volatility in his performance.

In addition Granderson has trouble versus lefties, so much so that he could be a platoon candidate for a gutsy manager., with a career .202/.265/.366 line versus lefties in his career, and had a .494 OPS versus lefties in 2007.

Each individual owner has to evaulate whether they are more concerned about Guerrero’s ground ball rate or Granderson’s walk rate and inability to hit lefties. It is a very close call and far be it from me to gainsay another’s opinion; there is risk and reward either way. I would go with Guerrero because of his better track record, but can easily be swayed.

Of course, if steals are at a premium then Granderson merits a small edge. But it does appear that they are two roughly equal commmodities with risk and league specifics being the determining factors.