After a 2nd poor start in a row, Clay Buchholz is now sporting a 5.53 ERA and ugly 1.63 WHIP. So as an owner in 2 leagues, and speaking for the rest of the fantasy population who has sufferred through his poor season so far, what should we do? And for the non-owners (which I am in my other 2 leagues), is this a buy low opportunity?

Underneath that 5.53 ERA, we find an excellent 9.1 K/9 and above average 47% GB rate. The lone negative is the poor control, as evidenced by his high 4.3 BB/9. Though he walked nearly 4 batters per 9 last year in just 22 2/3 innings, a look at his minor league stats would seem to indicate that his control should improve, possibly dropping his BB/9 into the 3.5 region. The strikeout rate is certainly for real and after looking at his minor league groundball rates, the GB% is probably for real as well.

So what’s behind that inflated ERA and disgusting WHIP? A .376 BABIP and 65% strand rate. His xFIP is actually a surprisingly good 3.65. When you have a K/9 that high and an above average GB%, then any expected ERA metric is going to salivate. I should also note that Buchholz is one of the few pitchers who is not experiencing a drop in velocity, as according to FanGraphs, his fastball is actually averaging 1 MPH more than last year. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more curves than last year, but given the ridiculous curveball he possesses, I’m not sure that should receive any of the blame for his high BABIP.

So after all this positivity, it would seem as if I’m advising you to rush out and send your buy low offers for him. Not so fast. The Red Sox extended the deadline in their agreement with Bartolo Colon from May 1st to June 1st, which allows Colon to opt out of his contract if he’s not called up by the new June 1st date. It seems to be the consensus that not only do the Sox want to call up Colon (assuming he’s healthy and still throwing 95 mph like he was before he missed some time due to injury), but Bartolo would take Clay’s rotation slot and Buchholz would be sent back down. The reasoning behind this is to limit Buchholz’s innings. I guess they feel they could better control this in the minors where they don’t really have to worry about winning games. I would think at some point later in the season, Buchholz would be called back up, but not being the GM of the Red Sox, I really have no idea what their plans are.

So this whole Colon thing is what’s holding me back from trying to buy low. When the May 1st deadline passed, I was giddy, as I thought the Colon threat was gone, but unfortunately the deadline was extended. So now I’ll be waiting until June 1st to see what the Sox do. If Colon is NOT called up and opts out, then Buchholz’s rotation spot should be safe and it’s all clear to trade for him. Of course by then, Clay could have thrown his 2nd no-hitter, so who knows if you’ll still be able to buy low. Since I think he’s simply been unlucky so far, odds are his ERA will more closely match his peripherals by then, but I guess we’ll see when the time comes. 

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.