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Morning Roundup: Swift Willy and the Speedsters

June 16th, 2008 · No Comments

Andrew Cleary

Willy Taveras stole five bases in Colorado’s 2-0 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday, and has stolen ten in the past ten games. With his thirty total bags already matching his season records from the past three years, I thought Swift Willy might give us a good chance to check in on the results of the other major league speedsters this year.

First, let’s take a look at the top fifteen or so base stealers so far this year:

Player G AVG OBP SB CS SB%
Jacoby Ellsbury 63 .289 .373 33 3 91.7%
Willy Taveras 59 .239 .294 30 2 93.8%
Ichiro Suzuki 69 .295 .358 29 2 93.5%
Michael Bourn 66 .239 .293 27 6 81.8%
Juan Pierre 61 .278 .337 26 6 81.2%
Jose Reyes 66 .286 .349 24 7 77.4%
B.J. Upton 67 .293 .403 22 8 73.3%
Carl Crawford 65 .265 .309 19 4 82.6%
Brian Roberts 67 .285 .361 19 5 79.2%
Carlos Gomez 65 .272 .307 18 8 69.2%
Joey Gathright 57 .243 .286 17 2 89.5%
Ian Kinsler 68 .305 .354 17 1 94.4%
Hanley Ramirez 68 .288 .377 16 5 76.2%
Grady Sizemore 67 .266 .378 16 2 88.9%
Kaz Matsui 51 .277 .347 15 3 83.3%
Alex Rios 68 .272 .331 15 5 75.0%

See some familiar names? So far it looks like many of the players who were counted on being valuable for steals this year are providing just that value. Some players, like Ellsbury and Ichiro, are adding steals to their all-around great fantasy value; others, like Gomez and Gathright, have been providing steals but not much else to their owners; and still others, like Reyes and Upton, are doing well at the plate but are getting caught stealing quite a bit (both Reyes and Upton are posting career-worst stolen base percentages this year).

While this handy table might help you evaluate players you’re looking to trade for (or help you congratulate yourself for owning them), it doesn’t really help identify any “hidden” base stealers if you’re looking to scrounge up steals on the waiver wire or free agent list–most of these players, with the possible exceptions of Gathright and Matsui, are probably already on someone’s roster. So let’s look for players who might be good to pick up. We’ll limit the list to players with fewer than fifteen stolen bases and stolen base percentages of at least 69.2%, the lowest mark on our leaderboard. Here’s who we get:

Player G AVG OBP SB CS SB%
Randy Winn 66 .301 .361 10 1 90.9%
Matt Holliday 52 .316 .402 8 1 88.9%
Tadahito Iguchi 59 .259 .324 8 1 88.9%
Grady Sizemore 67 .266 .378 16 2 88.9%
Alfonso Soriano 51 .283 .332 7 1 87.5%
Lance Berkman 68 .360 .445 11 2 84.6%
Luis Castillo 56 .264 .366 11 2 84.6%
Jason Bartlett 65 .249 .291 14 3 82.4%
Orlando Cabrera 69 .262 .315 9 2 81.8%
Shane Victorino 57 .278 .346 13 3 81.2%
Fred Lewis 69 .281 .362 12 3 80.0%
Brandon Phillips 68 .265 .314 12 3 80.0%
Corey Hart 68 .287 .330 10 3 76.9%
Rickie Weeks 59 .210 .325 10 3 76.9%
Carlos Guillen 62 .304 .384 6 2 75.0%
Torii Hunter 67 .268 .329 9 3 75.0%
Matt Kemp 64 .297 .341 12 4 75.0%
Lastings Milledge 69 .258 .323 12 4 75.0%
Julio Lugo 61 .273 .357 8 3 72.7%
Marco Scutaro 60 .257 .347 5 2 71.4%
Johnny Damon 67 .328 .392 12 5 70.6%
Nate McLouth 68 .296 .385 7 3 70.0%
Delmon Young 66 .278 .325 9 4 69.2%
Ryan Theriot 64 .310 .388 13 8 61.9%

Okay, I made the SB% cutoff a little lower, to include Ryan Theriot, who is required by Internet Law to be included in these kinds of lists. In any case, we now have a list of players who might be more “gettable” in your average fantasy league. I doubt Holliday, Soriano, Berkman, Phillips, Hart, Hunter, Damon, etc. etc. are anywhere near the free agent list, but there’s still a good amount of pleasant surprises here if you’re looking to pick up someone. Let’s cut down the list once more to cull the players I would guess are already owned in most leagues, leaving us with players who might conceivably be free agents, and include some more batting stats to see if we have any multiple-category pickups on our hands:

Player R 2B HR RBI AVG OBP BABIP (& Career)
Randy Winn 37 21 5 27 .301 .361 .333 (.327)
Tadahito Iguchi 25 12 2 20 .259 .324 .328 (.324)
Luis Castillo 34 6 3 21 .264 .366 .278 (.334)
Jason Bartlett 23 4 0 17 .249 .291 .297 (.308)
Fred Lewis 43 14 5 19 .281 .362 .368 (.365)
Rickie Weeks 43 9 7 20 .210 .325 .237 (.298)
Lastings Milledge 30 16 5 26 .258 .323 .298 (.303)
Julio Lugo 18 9 0 14 .273 .357 .335 (.316)
Marco Scutaro 25 6 2 24 .257 .347 .294 (.287)
Delmon Young 34 12 1 22 .278 .325 .333 (.344)
Ryan Theriot 42 1 1 18 .285 .388 .338 (.273)

So. I probably went out on a limb or two in cutting out the players I thought unavailable and keeping the ones I deemed likely free agents, but here’s to hoping this helps you identify a base stealer or two that could help your team. Good luck!

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