Robinson Cano has been a hot topic amongst fantasy owners frustrated by his slow start and of course the always entertaining NY media. What has been contributing to such a disappointing season and what can we expect going forward?
First, let’s take a look at some of Cano’s traditional stats and what pace he’s on to finish the season:
|
Year |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SB |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
|
2008 |
213 |
20 |
46 |
4 |
19 |
12 |
1 |
0.216 |
0.263 |
0.319 |
|
On Pace |
594 |
55 |
128 |
11 |
53 |
33 |
2 |
0.216 |
0.262 |
0.317 |
Clearly this is not what owners paid for as an expected top 5 2nd baseman. It’s true that his season totals, especially the BA/OBP/SLG rates, are being dragged down by a terrible April. In fact, his May was more in line with his career stats as he posted a .295/.333/.432 line. So has the real Robby Cano returned or is another April looming? Let’s now take a look at some of his underlying skills, compared with his career averages:
|
Season |
BB% |
K% |
ISO |
BABIP |
HR/FB |
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
|
2007 |
5.9% |
13.8% |
0.182 |
0.331 |
11.5% |
16.9% |
52.2% |
30.9% |
|
2008 |
5.3% |
9.9% |
0.103 |
0.223 |
6.3% |
16.1% |
50.8% |
33.2% |
|
Career |
4.4% |
12.4% |
0.167 |
0.324 |
10.7% |
18.6% |
51.4% |
30.0% |
BB%- Around in-line with his career average and ‘07 season, a good sign.
K%- A surprise to see Cano striking out the least often of his entire career, an even better sign.
ISO- The first chink in the armor that we find. As I mentioned the first time I brought up this metric, a depressed HR/FB ratio will obviously have a major influence on this number. Of note though is that his doubles rate is down as well, so it’s not just balls not leaving the yard as often, but his overall power skills are down.
BABIP- The obvious metric that everyone has been pointing to. This should rise to at least the league average of around .300, but there are some warning signs for this number that I will get to below.
HR/FB- We could see here that Cano is just not turning as many fly balls into HRs. He’s never been below the 10.4% level that he was at in ‘05, so you have to expect this to get nearer to career levels sooner or later.
GB%/LD%/FB%- Here we get to the interesting stuff. As we’ve known, Cano is a groundball hitter. As such, I think his HR upside may have been overrated as it will be very difficult for him to hit 25-30 HRs at his peak when he’s only hitting fly balls 30% of the time. But that doesn’t really matter for 2008. The important number to take note of is his line drive rate. It was only about 17% last year and is down to 16% this year. For a guy who doesn’t have more than slightly above average power, and has little speed, there’s no way he should be posting BABIP’s consistently over .320. His xBABIP (LD% + .120) for this year is only .281, so unless he starts hitting more liners at a rate that more closely matches his career average, he’s going to have a very difficult time posting a BABIP near his career level for the remainder of the season.
After perusing through Cano’s statistical profile, I think downgrading him slightly from his pre-season value might be the best course of action. What this means is that from now until the end of the season, I expect him to put up stats, which if pro-rated for a full-season’s worth, will be a little worse than most consensus pre-season projections. He still makes for a good acquisition target (I think I’m officially banning “buy low” and “sell high” from my vocabulary), but there are enough warnings signs to make me think that he won’t fully rebound from today onward, hence the slight value downgrade.
Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.
11 responses so far ↓
1 Brian Joura // Jun 4, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Can an infielder be a “good acquisition target” in a standard mixed league? If you play in a 12-team league people are starting Utley, Uggla, Hudson, Phillips, Kelly Johnson, Kinsler, Roberts, Polanco, Pedroia and Jose Lopez.
That still leaves Ellis, Iwamura, Kent and probably someone I’m forgetting about to cover the likely starters.
I can see either a ridiculous 8-player trade or a challenge trade, like Cano for Weeks. Where do you see a likely trade possibility in this scenario?
2 Mike Podhorzer // Jun 4, 2008 at 1:27 pm
An easier scenario might be trading Uggla to the Cano owner, and then including another pair of players where you get the better side in order to “even” out the trade.
In reality, Cano was unanimously valued higher than Uggla pre-season, and by a whopping $12 based on my values. I don’t see enough of a skills change for each player to drastically change these values. So from now to the end of the season, I still believe Cano will be worth more or at least the same as Uggla, making the above trade scenario an example where you’d be receiving the 2 most valuable players. The other owner instead sees himself upgrading from Cano to Uggla but downgrading somewhere else.
Also, many leagues, including my primary one, have an MI slot which would increase the need and value for a player like Cano.
You mentioned guys like Hudson, KJ, Polanco, Pedroia, and Lopez…I’d easily rather have Cano than all of these players. And I own Hudson, KJ and Polanco on my teams!
3 Lawrence // Jun 4, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I’ve bought low early on for Cano and dropped Kelly Johnson in the process. Right now, I have Theriot holding down the 2b until Cano decides to change. I haven’t seen him leave the 8 spot in the order in weeks, and realistically, I don’t know if he could climb any higher than 6th in that order this season anyway. The only way would be if Jeter moved to lead off.
4 Mike Podhorzer // Jun 4, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Lawrence, last year Cano had the most ABs from the 7th slot, and a little more than half as many from the 8th spot. He also had 94 ABs hitting 6th. So he was really always hitting low in the order last year as well.
I know it’s frustrating to keep trotting Cano out there, especially in daily leagues, but I think track record prevails over a 2 month sample, and I wouldn’t continue to start Theriot instead unless your desperate for steals.
Is Kelly Johnson still sitting on FA? He has no business being there if so, unless your in a really shallow league!
5 Brian Joura // Jun 4, 2008 at 8:10 pm
I guess my point was that in a mixed league, like Lawrence above, you wouldn’t be starting Cano at this point. So in the mythical trade, you have to upgrade from whoever your starter is. A reasonable waiver option like Kaz Matsui or Luis Castillo in these leagues is not killing you at 2B. So why would you weaken yourself at another position to upgrade Cano - a bench player who may make a return to starting-caliber play?
6 Mike Podhorzer // Jun 5, 2008 at 5:30 am
I guess Brian it’s because I would be starting Cano! I don’t bench slow starters with a history of success.
7 Brian Joura // Jun 5, 2008 at 6:50 am
That’s what makes a horse race, I guess.
I was surprised to see that 87% of Cano owners in CBSSportsline leagues were starting him. Not quite as surprised to see the guy starting him in my league there was 12th out of 13 teams.
8 Dan Sonenberg // Jun 6, 2008 at 4:53 am
It’s funny - I’ve traded for Cano twice this season!
First I got Cano for Victorino straight up. I then traded him w/ Aybar for Derek Jeter. (who I recently moved in a multi-player deal to get Tejada).
More recently, I probably overpaid to get Cano back. I sent Dye and Carlos Pena for him (the first was a f/a pickup, and the second had frustrated me to near death). Convinced that Cano had turned the corner, I dealt Brian Roberts, my starter, for Alex Rios - a move whose merits remain to be seen.
I still think Cano comes on strong in his traditional second half - if not I think I look pretty dumb.
9 Dr. K // Jun 6, 2008 at 7:05 am
Lawrence,
Re: “I haven’t seen him leave the 8 spot in the order in weeks”
You must have missed the games on May 31st, June 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th where Cano hit 7th.
10 John Hammon // Jun 10, 2008 at 11:56 pm
The thing about Cano that really makes him a key target is that in many leagues position scarcity isn’t understood and valued the way it should be. Both MI positions have been incredibly scarce during the first half of this season. After the beasts like Hanley, Reyes, Utley, and Uggla (wha?) the positions get fairly thin. The upside of a guy like Cano really becomes drool-worthy when you consider many fantasy owners in 10 and 12 team leagues are starting players like J.J Hardy, Rickie Weeks, and Jose Lopez. It’s all about replacement value in Cano’s case.
11 Mike Podhorzer // Jun 11, 2008 at 6:22 am
Absolutely agree that many owners don’t understand position scarcity. The interesting thing when I look at ADPs before the season is that for the most part, position scarcity IS factored in correctly. So fantasy owners collectively do value it right, but many individual owners don’t.
Catcher is a good example. I will argue that based on consensus pre-season projections, V-Mart was worth a 3rd round pick, which is exactly where his ADP had him being drafted. However, many owners would argue he’s overvalued there and not worth picking so high.
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