Last night we were blessed to have Rob Reed of Baseball Geeks as our guest, and despite his being held at knifepoint outside Yankee Stadium and generally having to talk over the roar of the subway, it was a fun show.  Here are some notes on Justin Upton, Jesse Litsch and Pedro Martinez, all of whom were topics last night. You can listen to the show from the player in the left column.

First up was the start of Pedro Martinez. The panel generally agreed that Pedro would have an ERA below four, with me as the only dissenter.  In 2006 he had a 3.98 ERA. In his abbreviated 2007 he had a 2.57 ERA but a 3.98 xERA. So now he is a year older, coming off an injury and for two years has shown the skills of a pitcher with a 4 ERA. The Mets seem like they are in trouble, and as Lenny Melnick says, “as the team goes so does the player.”  It will not take a lot for him to have an ERA above four.

Justin Upton is an interesting case. He was off to a fast start with the bat but not so much with the legs, as he has 8 HR but only one steal in three attempts. Surprisingly for such a young player, both Baseball HQ and Baseball Prospectus have very similar forecasts for him this year, and he is on target to meet those forecasts aside from steals. The panel thought he would struggle to be a $15 player, but he has a good shot at it in my view. So far the major negative is his abysmal contact rate of 65%, but he projected in the minors to do far better than this, probably in the range of 75%-80%, so I am guessing this is a blip on the radar.

One issue for him though is the fact his batting average is due for a big correction. His expected BA is only .247. Plus, he hit five of his homeruns in the first 11 games, and since then has cooled off in the power department as he struggles to make contact. He is 5 for his last 45 as that correction is taking place as we speak, and we don’t know how far down he will go. Could he go so far down that he ends up in AAA?

Two weeks in a row everyone thought I was crazy during the “Are You Crazy” segment. Last week it was the thought that the Rays could win the AL and go to the World Series.  This week I proffered that Jesse Litsch will continue to be a top ten AL pitcher and will garner some Cy Young votes. The point of the segment is to make a somewhat speculative projection that has some reason to think it will happen. So I am not “putting it on the board” so to speak but I do think it is possible.

Right now he has 7 wins and a 3.18 ERA. The voters generally focus on wins when voting, plus he is a surprise story. Toronto is fourth in baseball in Defensive Efficiency, which helps Litsch a lot as he gets almost 50% of his balls on the ground.  Litsch has excellent control, so he is not putting guys on base for free. It is speculative for sure, especially since he doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts, but aside from that he is looking good. He may even make the All-Star team.

Feel free to email me and confirm that I am crazy. It is an off-the-wall prediction to be sure.