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This Week’s Roundtable–Sleepers Who Will Get 20 Steals

June 20th, 2008 · 14 Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

Courtesy of us, this week the Roundtable panel was asked what sleeper has the best chance to get 20 steals for the rest of the season.

Jason Collette–Roto Junkie-

I’ll take Joey Gathright. I honestly think 20 steals is tough for just about any reserve from this point forward, but Joey will run at every opportunity as it is his best chance at getting into scoring position.

Few in the sport are faster than Gathright from home to first so as he continues to keep it on the ground, he will have chances. He is making the best contact of his career but his walk rate has really fallen off this year which is holding his opportunities down. If he can get his walk rate back up to 8%, he can push the 40 steals barrier.

Mike Muschiano-Poughkeepsie Journal-

Jacoby Ellsbury- this has to be the popular choice for stealing at least 20 more bases this season. Ellsbury has already stolen 34 bases and was a sleeper of 2008 drafts. Ellsbury had an ADP of 132 on Yahoo, 175 on FSN, and 198 on CBS. He has exceeded every expectation and is already becoming a five tool player. With the rate he gets on base, .366 OBP, and the success rate of his steal attempts, 34-for-38, he is a lock for 20 steals.

Brian Joura-Fantasy Baseball Generals-

Last year from June 17th to the end of the season, 14 players stole 20 or more bases.  So, I eliminated the top 14 players in steals from consideration for this answer.  The sleeper most likely to steal 20 plus bags from now to the end of the season is Jason Bartlett. 

The Rays starting shortstop, Bartlett has an excellent ratio when he attempts to steal, as he’s been safe on 83 percent of his 18 chances.  And with a whopping .283 slugging percentage, you know when he does get on board safely, it’s likely to be first base, increasing the likelihood of an attempted steal

Bartlett started off slow, stealing just three bags in April.  The first month of the season was bad overall for Bartlett, as he hit just .209 for the month.  In his last 44 games, he’s batting ..281 with 13 steals and 19 runs scored.  He’s a pretty solid defender, second in zone rating and sixth in range factor among AL shortstops, so he’s likely to stay in the lineup, too.  With Tampa Bay in the wild cart hunt, the Rays are unlikely to switch shortstops and risk a hit to their defense, meaning Bartlett should get the games played necessary to get 20 steals the rest of the way.
Adam Ronis-Newsday.com-

I’ll select Lastings Milledge. He hasn’t played very well so far, but he has 12 steals and has got caught just four times. He has the tools and speed to succeed. He is still a young, undisciplined hitter with a low on-base percentage. Milledge should get better as he sees more pitching while playing everyday. The Nationals don’t have a high-powered offense and they will need to be aggressive in order to score runs, so Milledge should get the green light.

Eric Stashin–Rotoprofessor-

There are many options out there if you need a cheap source of steals moving forward, but to me, the most likely to swipe at least 20 bases from this point forward is Alexi Casilla of the Minnesota Twins. Thus far, he has stolen just 3 bases, but the speedster appears to have earned everyday playing time as the teams second baseman and #2 hitter, giving him plenty of opportunity to run.

In 189 AB’s last season, Casilla stole 11 bases. Add that to the 24 he posted at Triple A, and he had 35 stolen bases on the season. The prior season, between Single A and Double A, he stole 50 bases, so that certainly should tell you the type of speed he possesses

With regular playing time, Casilla could easily steal another 20 bases moving forward and could even close exceed 30 for the season. He reminds me a lot of Luis Castillo, who filled 2B for the Twins for a year and a half prior to being dealt to the Mets last season. If you are desperate for some steals and have plenty of power at your other positions (since Casilla’s 3 HR appear to be more of an aberration then reality), he is your man in my book.

Tim Dierkes–Roto Authority-

I will go with Alexi Casilla.  To manage 20 steals over the remaining 90 or so games of the season will require regular playing time, and most unowned sleeper burner types don’t have that (Nyjer Morgan, Jerry Owens, Joey Gathright). 

Casilla has only been attempting to steal about 9% of the time, right around average.  But last year he ran almost a third of the time, and he could certainly return to that pace.

Breet Greenfield–Fantasy Phenoms-
The sleeper pick most likely to get 20 steals going forward is a Pittsburgh Pirates minor leaguer.  He plays the OF and is currently blocked by McLouth, Bay and Nady.  Since the Pirates won’t be making the playoffs, potential contenders could inquire about the services of Xavier Nady and possibly Jason Bay.  If one of them is traded or lands on the DL, Andrew McCutchen could get the promotion from AAA.  He’s stolen 19 bags already in 2008 and has shown some pop with eight homers as well. 

Keep an eye on the young Pirate.  If McLouth, Bay or Nady gets injured or traded, he’ll be called up and could provide you with 20+ SB’s during the second half of the season.

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14 responses so far ↓

  • 1 jon // Jun 20, 2008 at 7:26 am

    Hahaha..Ellsbury as a SB “sleeper”. Thanks for the morning laugh. In other news, I am looking for HR and am wondering if you think ARod or Ryan Howard will hit any the rest of the season?

    In all seriousness though, 20 SB the rest of the way is about a pace of 36 or so for the season.

    So there are two questions - who will do it, and who is a sleeper? What’s the better answer? A guy like Reyes who is a lock to steal 20 bags but of course is not a sleeper? Or a guy with a 10% chance of doing it but that nobody has heard of? Someone in the middle?

    I like Brian Joura’s approach - I’ll exclude all players who are already on that pace. That means excluding everyone who has stolen 16 or more bases.

    But even this isn’t great, because by this definition I’m allowed to pick Jimmy Rollins. Anyway, I’ve written too much so I’ll just go down the list and pick guys who I perceive to be lesser known, or underrated, and also who aren’t likely to be available due to their strength in other categories (eg. Berkman, Beltran, Hart):

    I end up with:
    Bartlett, Fred Lewis, and Rajai Davis.

    A dark horse is preseason sleeper Eugenio Velez, who has hit very will since his demotion and should get a 2nd shot at some point.

    Another longshot - Brett Gardner, who could come up with a Melky/Damon injury. Whether he’d play regularly is a big question though - but if he starts off hot, he’s a sparkplug type who could stick.

  • 2 Patrick DiCaprio // Jun 20, 2008 at 8:07 am

    Jon, I had the same thought as you, but I don’t write ‘em I just publish ‘em, so to speak.

  • 3 Brian Joura // Jun 20, 2008 at 8:11 am

    Thanks for the kind words, Jon.

    And you’re right - I should have explicitly said that Rollins was not eligible because he’s not a sleeper (although I have my doubts about him reaching 20, regardless).

    I’ll try to do better next time.

  • 4 Mike Muschiano // Jun 20, 2008 at 9:44 am

    Misread the question, my bad ha. I was thinking sleepers from the 2008 draft. I am embarassed to post the link to the roundtable on my page.

  • 5 Kevin Elster // Jun 20, 2008 at 11:03 am

    Mom packs us a lunch and we’re off to school
    They call us nerds ’cause we’re so uncool
    They laugh at our clothes
    They laugh at our hair
    The girls walk by with their nose in the air

    [Bridge] So go ahead, put us down
    One of these days we’ll turn it around
    Won’t be long mark my word
    Time has come for revenge of the nerds

    revenge of the nerds, revenge of the nerds

    We wear horn-rimmed glasses
    With a heavy duty lense
    Button down shirts
    And a pocket full of pens
    Straight “A” students
    Teachers pets
    They call us nerds
    But we don’t regret

    [Bridge]

    Revenge of the nerds (nerds)
    Revenge of the nerds (ha-ha-ha)
    Revenge of the nerds (nerds)
    Revenge of the nerds (chant: Nerd, nerds, nerds)

  • 6 asdf // Jun 21, 2008 at 3:44 am

    surprise chris y0ung (ari) didn’t get mentioned, he steals alot in the 2nd half of the season…

  • 7 Sooze // Jun 21, 2008 at 3:51 pm

    Eric - amen to Alexi. No doubt he’s an everyday player now and will have every opportunity to steal between Gomez and Mauer.

  • 8 Dave // Jun 21, 2008 at 8:33 pm

    I’d pick Elijah Dukes, I feel he’s just being overlooked right now.

  • 9 rob // Jun 21, 2008 at 11:10 pm

    I wasn’t able to get my listing in on time, but we are talking “sleepers,” so I was looking at Norris Hopper and Chris Duffy.

    The problem is that these guys’ values are primarily limited to SBs and I’m not a fan of one-dimensional folks… but I’d figure that very few people are thinking about these two… and both of them can get 20 steals with enough playing time the rest of the way (Duffy is rehabbing; Hopper just came back up from an injury after Bailey was sent back down).

  • 10 Todd "The True GURU" Farino // Jun 22, 2008 at 4:12 am

    The Ellsbury one was funny seeing I called him getting 50.

  • 11 eric // Jun 23, 2008 at 5:12 pm

    Ellsbury? hahahahahaha NICE

    He already has 30-some. so take him off the sleeper list

  • 12 DAVID // Jun 23, 2008 at 6:25 pm

    Jacoby Ellsbury is NOT a sleeper… What a wack pick… Lastings is the smartest pick along with fred Lewis…

  • 13 CNB // Jun 29, 2008 at 6:58 pm

    What about Emmanuel Burriss? I don’t think I saw him mentioned….and we are talking sleepers.

  • 14 Patrick DiCaprio // Jun 30, 2008 at 5:56 am

    I like Burriss and picked him up in the FBSEL. Playing time is the big issue for him though. He certainly would be a reasonable selection for this topic.

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