I have never done a post like this, but in my daily review of the boxscores there were so many interesting things that I couldn’t help myself. Tomorrow I will do the NL.
Generally I really don’t like this type of column. It is especially irksome when, as it is on some sites, almost all of the content is this type of news rather than analysis. But, having never done one if these columns, I thought I may as well jump into the pool because there is so much interesting information to be gleaned every day:
-Very quietly the Yankees have drifted back into the race, as they are only 3.5 games out. The Rays have struggled on the road and play 37 of their remaining 62 on the road. This division will be a barnburner all the way home, and it really would be an amazing feat if the Yankees pull it out. The Rays have been healthy and the Yankees and Sox have been beset by injuries.
-Even in real baseball you have to get lucky to win. Just ask the A’s who have a better Pythagorean record than the Angels by three games but are actually ten games out.
-Adam Jones is making the Bedard trade look pretty good for the Orioles. He had a very rough start, but now has 6 HR 43 RBI 8 SB and is hitting .285.
-As Andrew pointed out yesterday, Alexei Ramirez has really blossomed. To toot our own horn for a second, aside from us the only other person I heard mention Alexei Ramirez as a good bet and not a mere “sleeper” was Lenny Melnick. With four more RBI for Ramirez on Tuesday, he remains a good bet and he could go 15-15-.300.
-On the other hand, I was one of the few guys that said Mark Buehrle would have an ERA close to 5.00. This prediction was looking good earlier in the season, but now he is the Buehrle we expected, evening his record at 8-8 with a 3.56 ERA. He has a 4.39 xERA so though he has been fortunate, he has often outperformed his xERA in the past and my concern in the preseason appears to be unwarranted.
-The days of Carlos Gomez as a starter may be numbered, as the analysts who cited his poor batting eye as an Achilles’ heel look to be correct. Denard Span has run with his opportunity, hitting .341 with a .313 xBA. He is essentially what the Twins hoped Gomez would be. Curiously, the Twins had the most .300 hitters in the lineup of any team yesterday, with Span .341, Casilla .320, Mauer .319, Morneau .318 (not a bad top four in the lineup) and Brian Buscher at .320 and Nick Punto at .311. Young just missed at .297. An OF of Span, Kubel and Young appears to be their best option.
-The Yankees bullpen has been a revelation this year, and is probably the main reason why they have stuck around in the race. Their ERAs: Robertson 1.59, Veras 2.97, Farnsworth 3.35, Giese 2.59 and then there is that Rivera guy. It is often said that you can build a bullpen from thin air, and the Yanks have finally done it. They just have to get rid of Hawkins.
-Dustin Pedroia has 135 hits. If you predicted in the preseason that he would lead the league in hits then please come write for this site, we could use you! He is a good example of how you need fortune to win no matter how skilled you are; almost no one thought he would be this good.
-R.A. Dickey, of missing ligament fame and now a knuckleballer, has an ERA of 3.93. Justin Verlander is at 3.95 and Josh Beckett is at 3.98.
Just to end this column, this was a fun exercise and I encourage everyone to do this once a week. Tomorrow I tackle the NL.
3 responses so far ↓
1 Brian Joura // Jul 24, 2008 at 8:43 am
Gee, I don’t get the idea that what Pedroia is doing is such a huge surprise. He was a Double-A All-Star in 2005 a Triple-A All-Star in 2006 and Rookie of the Year in 2007.
His power numbers this year might be a bit surprising (although not out of the ordinary for a young player to exhibit) but his average and OBP skills have been evident for a number of years now.
I don’t see how his hit total is luck. Last year his BABIP was .334 and this year it is .335 and if we go back to the minors it was .317 in 2006 at Triple-A and .338 in 2005 at Double-A.
He has essentially duplicated his OPS and BABIP from what he did in 2007. The MSM likes to create this idea that anybody small and white is scrappy. Maybe they need to rewrite the story line and say that Pedroia is just a good athlete.
2 Patrick DiCaprio // Jul 24, 2008 at 11:12 am
agree with what you said, but i am not saying his hit total is lucky i am saying it was unforeseen. He is on pace for 220 hits; last year only Ichiro had more than that many, in 2006 only Ichiro had that many and in 2005 only Michael Young had that many with 221. In 2004 Ichiro had his 262 and after that Pierre had 221. Pedroia could have the most hits of anyone other than Ichiro in the last five years. You don’t think that is unforeseen?
3 Brian Joura // Jul 24, 2008 at 12:20 pm
As consistent as Ichiro has been, three of the five projection systems on FanGraphs had him with less than 200 hits. As a general rule of thumb, I think projection systems are conservative with the individual.
Chances are that at least one player will amass 210 or more hits in a season. At the same time chances are stacked against any one individual because not only does that individual have to stay productive for the entire season he has to stay healthy, too.
The pre-season projections for Pedroia had him getting between 446 and 548 at-bats. He is on pace to get 667 at-bats. That is the only part that is unforseen.
It’s a quality v quantity type question. The quality is no surprise. The relevant question, to me at least, is should the projection systems have looked at his expected quality and bumped up his expected quantity?
I think projection systems are hesitant to do that because while a few players will get the extra at-bats, the majority of them won’t - whether through injuries or whatever.
Here’s hoping Pedroia stays healthy and surprises the experts by leading the league in hits.
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