There was lots of general agreement among the Roundtable and our special guest Tony Cincotta on the issues. This week we discussed Chris Davis’ future, compared struggling closers George Sherrill and Jose Valverde, tackled Kevin Slowey and Jonathan Sanchez and “teed off” on a few topics.
We started out with a discussion of Chris Davis. I have seen a lot of Adam Dunn comparisons, but it looks like he has big contact problems with less power than Dunn, though Davis lit up the minors this year. As we have said before here many times, the most likely rookie flops are those that get called up while on a hot streak in the minors. Davis looks to me like Russell Branyan right now, which is no great shakes and not someone you should be targeting unless you have an urgent need.
The Sherrill/Valverde comparison is a good one for nascent fantasy GMs. Sherrill was handed the closer job despite historical trouble with righties, aside from some 70-odd at-bats in 2007. Once again we see the seduction of the short term sample as the Orioles bet on a fluke. They didn’t have too much choice but should have expected some regression. Sherrill’s 5.05 xERA shows that the regression isn’t over yet.
The Slowey/Sanchez comparison was closely contested, with Slowey winning in a 3-2 verdict. For my money I would bet on Sanchez in a close call. His second half last year leads one to believe that he had stamina issues but he actually improved his walk rate and K/BB ratio in the second half while fighting a 41% hit rate. When in doubt go with the better strikeout pitcher in the better park.
That said, I am a huge Slowey fan, and have no doubt that he will be an excellent pitcher. The only issue for him is that he is a flyball pitcher who is prone to the homerun, and because he strikes out less batters there are more balls in play, making him streakier and more prone to those occasional WHIP buster starts.
We also addressed Brett Myers, and generally the consensus is that the Phillies screwed it up; why not put him in the pen first? The “tee-off” is always entertaining, and was no exception yesterday so give the show a chance and listen in.
3 responses so far ↓
1 Kevin // Jul 2, 2008 at 7:15 am
The Phillies didn’t send Myers to the pen because that is what screwed him up to begin with.
2 Mike Podhorzer // Jul 2, 2008 at 10:18 am
Brett Myers is INJURED! His velocity has been down all year, his walk rate is up, and his K/9 is down. Why haven’t the Phillies done every medical test possible to find out what’s wrong with him?
Unless the minor leagues have some magical potion that would allow Myers to find his lost velocity, I don’t see how the demotion will benefit him.
And Patrick, about your comments regarding his inflated HR/F ratio- I truly believe that with his velocity down, whether it’s due to pitching at less than 100% or not, I don’t we should continue to classify it as bad luck. Like you’ve said before with Buehrle, the version of Brett Myers struggling to reach 90 might not even be an MLB-caliber pitcher.
3 Brandon // Jul 4, 2008 at 8:36 am
Mike,
I don’t think Myers is ‘injured’ although I don’t think he is ‘healthy’. As has been mentioned, the move from starter, to closer, back to starter, has definitely hurt Myers mechanics. I wouldn’t be surprised if that inherently hurt him, but I would say that is more of a result then a cause.
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