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Trade Analysis- Update 5:00- Manny to Dodgers and Bay to Sox Official

July 31st, 2008 · 3 Comments

Patrick DiCaprio

What I am going to do today is keep this post updated as to any trades that happen with my analysis. So you can keep checking back for the latest. There were a few overnight deals worth addressing, so read on and check back! I will add any updates in bold and the newest trades will go to the top.

5:00 The Manny Deal is official. It is far too big to summarize here so I will do a separate post on it. It is reported that the Pirates are getting Andy LaRoche, Craig Hansen, Brandon Moss and Bryan Morris. The Sox get Bay and the Dodgers get Manny. Wow. At first glance it really isn’t clear who is the “winner” of this deal, but right now off the top of my head on the field it looks like Pirates by a nose, then the Dodgers and then the Sox. However Bay is under contract for 7.5M next year, so in terms of money the Sox win versus the Dodgers. So off the field the Sox are big winners and don’t lose much on the field. The Pirates get two major league ready hitters, and an improved Craig Hansen. The Dodgers get a malcontent for two months, as the options were removed and he has declined arbitration, but they also get two high picks. Plus Manny will definitely help in a close race in the NL West so is it possible that everyone wins? More on the deal tomorrow.

4:34 EST- Apparently Jason Bay to the Red Sox is part of the Manny to the Dodgers trade. Talk about excitement. Without knowing the rest of the trade, this could be a fantastic, fantastic deal for the Sox. Bay is nearly as good a hitter as Manny at this point, and is much cheaper and obviously brings less drama. The Dodgers apparently weren’t content rotating 4 OFers, now they want to play 5? Maybe Manny will play SS.

4:32 EST- It’s been reported that Manny Ramirez has been traded to the Dodgers. No further details have been provided. Wow!

4:08 EST- Griffey trade made official, for Danny Richar and Nick Masset. It doesn’t look like the White Sox gave up much, but I don’t understand how Griffey fills a need. Sure, it’s always nice to collect better than replacement level bats, but unless Konerko is really hurt, I just don’t see how this is an offensive upgrade. He’s also going to be moving back to CF? Seriously? Hasn’t his defense declined enough that he isn’t even good in the corners anymore? So much for expecting Javier Vazquez’s BABIP to decline, as this doesn’t help the OF D whatsoever.

3:49 EST- And the deadline craziness continues as apparently the Bay trade I examined below isn’t a done deal. Please, could any of the billion rumored deals take place already? I’m getting bored at work refreshing Rotoworld and MLBTradeRumors every 30 seconds hoping for something to get completed and all I keep reading is this team is interested in this player and this deal is still being discussed and that player is off the table. MAKE A TRADE!!

Bay to Rays: Wow, I guess the Rays are serious about contending after all. They get a guy who has an .894 OPS and had 3 straight seasons of an OPS over .900 after injuries likely led to his disappointing output last year. This is a huge addition to their lineup and I’m cheering as this could only help the run support for the two Rays pitchers I own, Kazmir and Shields. Bay is signed through 2009 at a reasonable price so he should have garnered a very good return.

Reid Brignac is starting to look like a bust as he’s posted just a .732 OPS this year at Triple-A, following last year’s disappointing .760 OPS at Double-A. He might eventually be a 20 HR, .250 hitter in the Majors, but he’s not looking anything like a future star. Jeff Niemann may end up being the more valuable player for the Pirates as it seems like he’s been on top prospect lists for years. He’s been derailed by injuries in the past, and his control isn’t great, but he’s always had good strikeout ability and his GB% has been in the mid 40’s, which is slightly above average. He might immediately join the Pirates rotation and is a worthy gamble in NL-Only leagues.

3:15 EST- According to a source for MLB.com, the Rays have finally made the big splash Patrick had been saying they should make (this is Mike typing!). Reportedly, Jason Bay has been acquired by the Rays for Reid Brignac and Jeff Niemann. The Rays haven’t confirmed yet, more details to follow.

Manny Ramirez Update: It has been reported that he has consented to a deal. But Peter Gammons says the deal is close to dead. Who knows?

Griffey to White Sox: It has been reported, without confirmation yet, that the White Sox have acquired Ken Griffey Jr. from the Reds. Apparently the hold up right now is that Griffey hasn’t yet approved the deal. Frankly, he is nuts if he doesn’t approve it. Though playing time may be an issue, he at least will get to play for a team with legitimate designs on the World Series and at this stage of his career this must be a significant carrot for him. That said, it is hard to see how he will fit with the Pale Hose, who have Quentin, Swisher, Dye, Konerko and Thome to fill up the spots where we could reasonably expect Griffey to play. If this deal gets done there may be a surprise player that hasn’t yet been mentioned that is traded or perhaps Kenny Williams has another card to play.

Update 11:30–It has now been reported that Griffey has approved the trade.

Pudge to the Yankees: This deal apparently came out of nowhere, and in the span of two days the Yankees have essentially shored up all of their holes. While Pudge is no longer the star he once was, he is still an above average hitting catcher, and hasn’t shown any reticence to bat low in the lineup, hitting eighth with Detroit. The fact that the Yankees got an above average everyday catcher for replaceable flotsam like Farnsworth speaks volumes about Brian Cashman. One cause for concern is that despite the superficial batting average since June, his xBA has dropped each month this year, but in any event he will almost certainly be an upgrade no matter what. Leyland did a good job keeping him rested, with Pudge only catching 62% of their games in July and 70% in June.

This trade will actually work out for the Tigers also, as Farnsworth’s biggest nemesis is the long ball, and as a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium he cannot help but give up homers to lefties. Comerica lets up about 20% less homeruns to lefties than Yankee Stadium. If you want to speculate on saves in that pen here is your candidate.

Latroy Hawkins to the Astros. It is now official. Ed Wade has, in fact, lost it. Sad days in Houston my friends. You have to be kidding me with this deal.

Manny Ramirez to Anyone This deal has been reported and then denied and there are all sorts of rumors even still, and the AP has reported that there is no agreement. Stay tuned on this one.

Arthur Rhodes to Marlins The Marlins get Arthur Rhodes for Gaby Hernandez. I like this deal for Seattle. Hernandez was at one time considered a very good prospect, and was traded for Paul LoDuca. He has battled some injuries, but is still only 22 and though his ERA was ghastly in the PCL he had 54-26 K/BB ratio in 62 IP, and upon demotion to AA he has improved a bit in his short time there. You are not going to get a top prospect for a guy like Rhodes, but Hernandez has a bit of upside and development left. Rhodes gives the Marlins a bit more depth in the pen, and with Kevin Gregg not exactly setting the world on fire lately that depth may come in handy. However, this is one of those minor deals that could look like a steal five years from now for Seattle.

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3 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Mike Podhorzer // Jul 31, 2008 at 8:52 am

    Wow, this Griffey deal is looking like it makes no sense. There’s no reason to expect him to be an upgrade offensively over anyone he’d force to the bench. AND I own Swisher in 2 leagues. UGHHHH

  • 2 Kevin Orris // Jul 31, 2008 at 2:09 pm

    Manny to LA, Bay to Boston, Moss, Hansen, Andy LaRoche, and Dodgers pitching prospect to Pittsburgh.

    Is Pittsburgh in constant re-build mode?

  • 3 rob // Jul 31, 2008 at 5:00 pm

    I have an awful feeling that Manny is going to say something bad comparing Dodger fans to Fenway fans (in a negative light towards Dodger fans, of course)… and this is not gonna turn out well. :(

    This is not to say I wouldn’t agree with Manny, but the first time he hears this from the stands:

    “Who’s this Manny guy? Is he related to Pedro Ramirez?”

    Somehow, I don’t think he’ll POLITELY correct this individual as said individual walks out to his convertible Porsche in the seventh inning.

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