Has it been “so far so good” for the transition of Joba Chamberlain to the rotation?  What can we expect for the second half?

I was one of the analysts that was against Joba moving to the rotation. The main crux of my position was that there was a lack of proper planning and process, as the move was ill-thought and a mere two weeks before he was moved the team said he would be in the bullpen all year. This smacked of desperation and showed that the Yankees would risk a multi-million dollar asset at the altar of the short term. It didn’t even matter how he did; he could be great or poor, but either way it wouldn’t alter the fact that they were jerking him around.

So far the early returns haven’t justified my pessimism. In fact I will have to admit that the transition has gone as well as anyone could have reasonably hoped, though that was not the main focus of my criticism. On the surface Joba has a 2-3 record and a 2.62 ERA, with 10.6 K/9IP, juicy enough results by themselves.  Walks are still a problem as he is walking 4.5 batters per nine.

The skills show this ERA really isn’t a fluke. The Holy Duo of skills that we tout here for success are groundball rate and K rate, and we assert that poor control can be overcome if a pitcher is strong in these two categories. Joba fits this thesis perfectly.  He has a 54.3% groundball rate to go along with that 10.6 K/9 rate, both of which are excellent numbers. His expected ERA is 3.50, which is solid and would make him a second tier pitcher, though admittedly above his current ERA so that regression will be expected.

There are a few causes for concern. The first is his strand rate, which sits at just under 80%. Relievers can maintain high strand rates this high, but starters generally cannot. In June, Joba had an 88% strand rate, coupled with a 1.80 ERA. So far in July the strand rate has regressed to a pedestrian 70%, and his ERA has risen to 4.32 on the month. So one can infer that at least some portion of his low ERA is tied to a high strand rate.

Joba’s hit rate or BABIP has increased steadily as his starts have mounted. In May it was 27%, in June 33% and in July 36%. Yet, his line drive rate on the season is a very low 12.3%. As the line drive rate self-corrects that hit rate may remain elevated, causing WHIP problems for his owners as these hits will hit the WHIP in conjunction with his high walk rate.

One can look at this data two ways. The first is that June was a fluke and his successful transition in June is luck based and not skills based, so that we still do not know what type of pitcher we have here as a starter. This is a valid viewpoint, and one I cannot gainsay.

The other is that July represents growing pains, and though the hit rate is going up and the strand rate is going down he will still be very good as he matures a bit as a starter.

I am more inclined to side with the “growing pains” viewpoint, though fantasy owners should be aware that all is not rosy for the second half just yet. No matter what transpires, the smart money is on him being a bit rocky and far more inconsistent in the second half, though the end result will likely be good. I have to side with the K rate and GB rate for now.