For some reason, even though we have like 1 ^1/2 more months left in the season, I’m already seeing early 2009 rankings. It’s sure fun to look at and debate, but it really doesn’t offer much value with so many potential changes that could and will occur by the time we start really looking toward 2009. Anyway, I keep seeing Josh Hamilton’s name in the top 12 and I have to admit that I think it’s absurd.

I won’t be quoting any fancy stats or sabermetrics for this article, as that is unnecessary. So how about a simple list of reasons why I think Hamilton is not worth a 1st round pick in straight draft leagues next year:

1. All his counting stats are being inflated by his high AB total that puts him on pace for 639 this season. Now, I’m not one to project a player to be injured, but this is a guy who has had the reputation of being fragile, was injured last year, and had never even had more than 391 ABs in any professional baseball season until this year. In PECOTA terms, that number of ABs would probably be the 90th percentile, clearly not what any good projection should spit out for 2009.

2. 153 RBIs. That is what he’s on pace for. I am 100% certain that this is a main driver of his early 1st round ranking for 2009 drafts. Obviously, expecting a repeat, or anything close, does not make for a sound projection, but rather wishful thinking. And it’s not like he has a pair of .400 OBPs in front of him that might cause one to believe he’ll continue to have a ton of opportunities to drive in runs. Ian Kinsler is at a solid .378 OBP, but that’s built upon a .343 BABIP, which could very well fall, taking his OBP with it (and his BB% is actually a below average 8.2%). And Michael Young is only at a .337 OBP, has a career .346 rate, and is at an age where you can’t expect much improvement.

3. Carlos Lee. That’s the name of the OFer who posts 5×5 stats that are almost a carbon copy of what Hamilton is doing this year, sans the ridiculous RBI total. Has Lee ever been a 1st rounder or even ranked in anyone’s first round, like…ever?

4. Staying with the Lee theme, and moving onto track record, Carlos Lee has actually been performing at his current level for 6 years. Sure, Josh Hamilton has a heart warming story, and he’s become a guy everyone is rooting for. But all he’s had is one half season in 2007 where he was very good, and another 4 months of excellence this year.

5. Following up on Point #4, the 1st round is all about risk reduction. As the cliché goes, “You can’t win your league in the 1st round, but you could certainly lose it.” When there are a number of sure-things who have had a longer history of producing top roto value and should even be projected to at least match Hamilton’s 2009 projected roto value, there’s just no reason to draft Hamilton that early and take on more risk without any reasonable expectation of greater reward.

So, now you have five reasons not to draft Josh Hamilton in your league’s first round next year. Just don’t go laughing at me if Hamilton goes .300-45-140-110-10 next year and actually earns 1st round value, because as we always say here, it’s the process that counts, rather than the results.

Questions, comments, criticisms, praise, expert league invitations? Email me at FBGeneralsMike@gmail.com.