A few of the Generals picked him to win the Cy Young this season. Oops. After a bad start he seemed to be turning it around but has since gone off the deep end. Or has he?

Verlander’s season has essentially been a disaster to fantasy owners. With only one good month to his credit this year and an overall erosion in results one naturally must ask what has gone wrong. In 2008 he has had only one month with an ERA below three, a 2.73 mark in June, and only in May was he also below four with a 3.92 mark.

What jumps out is the disconnect between his ERA and xERA:

March: 6.06 ERA 3.16 xERA
April: 6.60 ERA 6.40 xERA
May: 3.92 ERA 4.94 xERA
June: 2.73 ERA 4.36 xERA
July: 4.70 ERA 4.20 xERA
Aug: 5.50 ERA 4.10 xERA

As the summer has gone on his xERA has gotten better while his actual ERA has gotten worse. In terms of xERA only April can be considered a disaster and he has been OK in June, July and August while getting better each month. The question is whether this is wear and tear, luck or something else. Given that his xERA has gotten better it does not appear to me that he has been overworked, but let’s look at some harder evidence.

In terms of wear and tear, we can look at Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points metric. Verlander is third in the majors, below C.C. Sabathia and just above Carlos Zambrano (and that fifth place guy will have his owners VERY worried–Tim Lincecum). He has the second most Category Three (between 110-121 pitches) starts, behind Lincecum and Halladay with 11. This could be used as a prima facie case of overwork.

Research has shown that it is not the speed that declines with overwork but control. This does not appear to be a big issue for Verlander. In the last four months his walks per nine rate has been 3.0, 3.8, 3.1, 4.0.  This is constant enough that it would not automatically implicate overwork. On the other hand Verlander has admitted he feel fatigued. He has been ridden hard in his last four starts, throwing 110 pitches in 4.0 innings on 7/26, 114 pitches in 5.2 innings on 7/31, 130 (!) in 7.2 on 8/6 and then cratering in his next start. However he did pitch well this weekend.

Looking at his skill package what stands out is an abnormally low LOB% for the season at 65%, with a 53% figure in the last month. This is likely a random fluctuation, as the last two years he was at 76% and 73%. He is only letting up line drives at a 16% clip, so his .281 BABIP does not appear to be the culprit. His xERA tells the tale in my view.

Overall he looks to me like a guy bitten by the short term LOB% bug as he has been unlucky in that department. He has been ridden hard, and this may be a factor also, however his underlying skills aren’t that far out of line with his overall record but for the LOB% or strand rate. Don’t be surprised if he pitches much better and even has an ERA below four the rest of the way.