“If one who finds the majority of factors are in his favor will be victorious, and one who finds few factors in his favor will be defeated, what of one who finds no factors in his favor?”

Those of us that play poker know this principle well, and an example will suffice. You have pocket Aces, an opponent moves all in (in a no-limit game of course) and you call. Your opponent has a pair of tens, and on the river he catches a third ten, and you lose. Here we consider stack sizes, position, psychology, possible card strength, the betting sequences etc., and conclude that calling is correct.

The thinking process is what determines what is a good play and what is a bad play in poker. The results are at the whim of the cards. The same is true in baseball; recall the 2001 World Series where my beloved Yankees maneuvered the game so that Tony Womack was hitting against Mariano Rivera with the game on the line. The process that led to this point made it the right play; no one would seriously suggest that the Yankees made the “wrong” move merely because it didn’t work out.

This is true in fantasy baseball also. The Stephen Drew example below is just one iteration. The process of analysis leads to the conclusion that Drew may be overrated. With regard to the Hardy/Guillen trade, the process of analysis leads to the conclusion that Guillen should be traded for Hardy. Whether these moves work out individually does not determine if they are good or bad; it is the thought process behind them. In the aggregate, the better decisions you make the better your outcomes regardless of the result of an individual outcome; and poker players know this very well.

So what is the correct process?? To this there is no easy answer; but in general the player who thinks about and considers the most relevant variables will succeed where the player who thinks of less will not. The Fantasy General must focus his efforts on considering all relevant factors, which include many things that most owners may not think of in most scenarios, such as a players results in lower minor leagues, whether the team values defense over offense in determining playing time, manager philosophies etc. For example, those who were aware of Dusty Baker’s proclivities would know to recommend against investing big in Mark Prior after his abuse at Baker’s hands (and in fact I advised one of our contributors against Prior in his NL only league). Yet in many leagues he was an early draftee and went for a large price in auctions.

Focus on the process; results will follow at least in the long run.